特斯拉- 三季度业绩：普罗米修斯耸耸肩

Summary of Tesla Inc 3Q Results Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tesla Inc - Industry: Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Cap: $1,544,735 million - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: $410.00 - Current Price (as of October 22, 2025): $438.97 - 52-Week Range: $488.54 - $212.11 Key Financial Highlights - 3Q Revenue: $28,095 million, slightly above consensus by 0.9% and Morgan Stanley estimate by 0.2% [7] - Automotive Revenue: $21,205 million, 2.3% above consensus and 3.4% above Morgan Stanley estimate [9] - Free Cash Flow (FCF): $4 billion, significantly above consensus by 3 times [1][7] - Gross Margin: Total gross margin at 18.0%, with automotive gross margin at 17.0% [9] - Net Income: GAAP net income of $1,373 million, down 15.2% from consensus [9] - Adjusted Net Income: $1,832 million, down 11.8% from consensus [9] - Diluted EPS: GAAP EPS at $0.39, down 15.2% from consensus [9] Strategic Insights - Transition to Recurring Revenue: Automotive revenue is projected to account for only 75% of total revenues as Services/Other and Energy segments grow, with Services/Other up 25% YoY and Energy up 44% [7] - Robotaxi Development: Anticipation of removing safety drivers for robotaxi by 1Q26, indicating faster progress than expected [7] - Full Self-Driving (FSD) Approval: Potential approval in Europe and China could unlock significant margins, estimated at 90% for FSD subscriptions [7] - Optimus Production: Investors are eager for updates on Optimus production and operations within Tesla factories [7] Risks and Considerations - Competition: Facing competition from legacy OEMs, Chinese players, and big tech [13] - Execution Risks: Challenges related to multiple factory ramps and geographic penetration [13] - Market Recognition: Concerns that the market may not recognize the potential of Dojo-enabled services operations [13] - China Risk: Ongoing geopolitical and operational risks associated with the Chinese market [13] Analyst Commentary - Market Reaction: Overall reaction to earnings was largely unchanged, with financial results aligning with consensus expectations [1][7] - Future Outlook: Analysts remain focused on Elon Musk's ability to innovate and maintain Tesla's competitive edge in autonomy amidst increasing competition [1] Conclusion Tesla Inc's 3Q results reflect a strong free cash flow and a strategic shift towards diversified revenue streams, although challenges remain in terms of competition and execution risks. The company's future growth will heavily depend on advancements in autonomous driving technology and the successful rollout of new products and services.