中国_外汇局数据显示 9 月外汇流入-China_ SAFE data suggest FX inflows in September

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange (FX) inflows and outflows in China for September 2025, highlighting the dynamics of the FX market and its implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Net FX Inflows: In September 2025, there were net FX inflows of US$27 billion, a significant recovery from US$34 billion in outflows in August, primarily driven by increased inflows related to goods trade [1][2][3]. 2. Current Account Performance: The current account channel recorded US$64 billion in FX inflows in September, up from US$22 billion in August. Notably, goods trade contributed a net inflow of US$72 billion in September compared to US$36 billion in August [3][4]. 3. FX Conversion Ratio: The FX conversion ratio for goods trade surged to 80% in September, compared to 35% in August and 58% in Q3, indicating a stronger conversion of trade surpluses into foreign currency [3][15]. 4. Services Trade Deficit: FX outflows related to the services trade deficit decreased to US$11 billion in September from US$14 billion in August, suggesting a slight improvement in the services sector [3]. 5. Portfolio Investment Channel: The portfolio investment channel experienced US$8 billion in FX outflows in September, contrasting with US$5 billion in inflows in August. Bond Connect flows showed US$6 billion in outflows, down from US$14 billion in August [4]. 6. Official FX Reserves: Official FX reserves rose to US$3,339 billion in September from US$3,322 billion in August. After adjusting for FX valuation effects, reserves increased by US$16 billion [5]. 7. Commercial Banks' External Assets: Commercial banks' net external assets increased by US$10 billion in September, recovering from a US$50 billion decline in August, with the total outstanding amount now at US$1,227 billion [5]. Additional Important Insights - The data indicates a trend of foreign investors slowing their sales of RMB bonds from August to September, which may reflect a more stable outlook for the Chinese bond market [1][12]. - The overall improvement in FX inflows and reserves could signal a strengthening of the Chinese economy, particularly in the goods trade sector, which is crucial for future investment strategies [3][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the FX market in China and its implications for the broader economy.