中国房地产_国家统计局数据_疲软态势延续至 9 月；高基数下 10 月或更糟-China Property_ NBS data_ the weakness extended to September; October may look even worse with a high base

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Property market, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the housing sector as of September 2025 and expectations for further declines in October due to a high base effect [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Weakness: - The housing market continues to show weakness, with home prices and real estate investment declining. National sales value fell by 12% year-over-year (Y/Y) in September, despite a 3% Y/Y increase in sales from the top 100 developers [1][3]. - The discrepancy between national sales and top developers' sales is noted, likely due to differences in sales registration timing [3]. 2. Future Expectations: - A higher likelihood of new policy support from policymakers is anticipated, especially as the market conditions worsen. The phrase "the worse, the better" is used to describe the potential for policy intervention [1]. - The forecast for 4Q25 indicates a 15% Y/Y decline in national sales value, with top 100 developers potentially facing a >30% Y/Y decline [3][4]. 3. Home Prices: - The 70-city home price index showed a month-over-month (M/M) decline of -0.41% in September, worsening from -0.30% in August. Secondary home prices also declined, with tier-1 cities experiencing a slight improvement [3][4]. 4. New Starts and Completions: - New construction starts dropped 14% Y/Y in September, an improvement from -20% Y/Y in August. However, completions rose 1% Y/Y, primarily driven by strong growth in office and commercial properties [3][4]. 5. Real Estate Investment (REI): - REI saw a significant decline of 21% Y/Y in September, marking the worst decline in recent years. The full-year forecast for REI has been revised down to -14% Y/Y [3][4]. 6. Sales Forecasts: - The full-year sales value forecast is a 10% Y/Y drop, widening from an 8% Y/Y decline year-to-date. The anticipated decline in October is expected to be exacerbated by a high base effect [1][3]. 7. Investment Recommendations: - The fundamental top picks for investment include CR Land, CR Mixc, and China Jinmao. In a potential policy-induced rally, Longfor is expected to have more upside among non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), while COLI and COPL are seen as laggards among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis indicates that while the overall market metrics may not yet appear "bad enough" to trigger stronger policy support, specific metrics, particularly in tier-1 cities and REI, are already at concerning levels [4]. - The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming data releases, particularly for October, which is expected to reflect the impact of the high base from the previous year [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market.