中国_尽管三季度 GDP 增长数据看似强劲，仍不可自满-China_ No complacency despite the seemingly resilient Q3 GDP growth data

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Economy - Key Focus: Q3 GDP growth and its implications Core Insights and Arguments 1. GDP Growth: China's Q3 real GDP growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.2% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1, slightly above market consensus of 4.7% and internal forecast of 4.5% [1][2] 2. Nominal GDP Decline: Nominal GDP growth dropped to 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 from 3.9% in Q2 and 4.6% in Q1, primarily due to deflation [1] 3. Sector Performance: - Financial services and exports were key growth drivers, with export growth rising to 6.6% in Q3 from 6.1% in Q2 [2] - Financial services sector's contribution to GDP increased to 8.9% in Q3 from 6.7% in Q2 [2] 4. Weakness in Retail and Investment: - Retail sales growth fell to 3.0% year-on-year in September from 3.4% in August, with expectations of further decline below 3.0% in Q4 [3][15] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth worsened to -6.8% year-on-year in September from -6.3% in August, marking the lowest pace since early 2020 [11] 5. Property Sector Decline: - Property investment growth plunged to -21.2% year-on-year in September from -19.4% in August, with new home sales volume dropping to -10.5% [19][20] - The decline in home prices deepened, with average new home prices falling by 0.41% month-on-month in September [21] Additional Important Insights 1. Industrial Production: - Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.5% year-on-year in September from 5.2% in August, exceeding market expectations [5] - Manufacturing output growth increased to 7.3% year-on-year, while utility sector growth slowed to 0.6% [6] 2. Investment Trends: - FAI in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors saw significant declines, with infrastructure investment growth at -8.0% year-on-year in September [14] - Manufacturing investment also declined further to -1.9% year-on-year [12] 3. Policy Implications: - Post-4th Plenary Session, expectations are for Beijing to focus on short-term growth challenges, with potential stimulus measures anticipated towards year-end [4] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to consider a 10 basis point rate cut by year-end [4] Conclusion - The Chinese economy is showing signs of resilience in certain sectors, particularly financial services and exports, but faces significant challenges in retail, fixed asset investment, and the property market. The government is likely to implement measures to address these challenges while maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy.