中国 A 股策略_流动性保持健康，重申对沪深 300 的积极立场_聚焦中国创新企业-China A-share Equity Strategy_ Liquidity remains healthy, reiterate our positive stance on CSI-300_ screens on China innovators

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the China A-share Equity Strategy, particularly the CSI-300 index which is expected to perform positively until the end of 2026 [2][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - Market Outlook: - The CSI-300 index is projected to have a 26% to 32% upside by the end of 2026, based on a re-rating to +1.5SD/+2SD relative to the October 17 close [2][7]. - The expected consensus EPS growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 13.4% and 11.8%, respectively [2][7]. - Liquidity and Market Dynamics: - A-share liquidity remains healthy, with the A-share velocity easing to 4% from a peak of 6.8% [5][17]. - The margin financing balance increased from Rmb2.3 trillion in early September to Rmb2.4 trillion in early October, indicating a rise from 4.7% to 5% of the A-share free-float market cap [5][22]. - Net inflows into A-share ETFs totaled Rmb17 billion from October 13 to 16, with specific sectors like banks and semiconductors seeing the most inflow [5][37]. - Potential Risks: - Risks are primarily associated with uncertainties in US-China trade talks [2][5]. - The ongoing US-China tensions since October 9 are reminiscent of earlier market corrections, suggesting a cautious approach [5][6]. - Investment Opportunities: - The report highlights IT and healthcare A-share innovators as potential investment opportunities, focusing on metrics such as market capitalization and overseas revenue [2][5][11][12]. - Specific stock screens include: - IT localists and globalists in sectors like semiconductors and smartphone supply chains [11]. - Healthcare globalists in innovative drugs and healthcare equipment [12]. - Top A-share listings by market cap in sectors such as autos, batteries, and chemicals [14]. Additional Important Insights - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to provide insights into government policies that could impact market sentiment [5][6]. - The risk-free rate remains stable, which may support investors' risk appetite despite profit-taking observed in household savings [5][26]. - Upcoming key events include meetings between Chinese and US officials, which could influence market dynamics [6][5]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the outlook for the A-share market, liquidity conditions, potential risks, and investment opportunities within the sector.