中国 “十五五” 规划预期_房地产整治成关键议题；对印度钢铁业利好-Expectations from China‘s 15th five-year plan_ Property clean up to a critical agenda; positive for Indian Steel

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the Indian steel sector and its relation to China's economic policies and property market recovery [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - China's 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP): The upcoming plan is expected to prioritize economic resilience, national security, and inclusive development over explicit GDP targets, reflecting China's structural challenges from the property downturn [1][2] - Strategic Importance: The 15th FYP is deemed more significant than the 14th, addressing issues such as youth unemployment, income disparities, and the need for a policy reset towards inclusive growth and structural resilience [2][3] - Property Market Challenges: The primary domestic challenge for China from 2026 to 2030 will be addressing the structural imbalances in the property sector, which is crucial for economic stability [3] Implications for Indian Steel Sector - Positive Outlook for Indian Steel: The anticipated recovery in China's property sector is expected to boost domestic consumption, which will positively impact global hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices and reduce exports [4] - Key Factors Supporting Indian Steel: 1. Strong domestic demand momentum 2. Higher utilization rates due to lagging capacity additions 3. China's anti-involution measures 4. Potential roadmap for property recovery in China 5. Extension of safeguard duties to support prices [4] Additional Important Insights - Current Market Conditions: Recent data indicates a decline in new housing starts in China, reaching the lowest level in a decade, while excavator sales, a leading indicator for construction activity, have shown signs of recovery [6][8] - Price Trends: Average housing prices in China have been consistently falling, and weaker domestic consumption has led to lower domestic HRC prices [10][15] - Future Expectations: Analysts expect Indian domestic margins to improve as demand recovers in the second half of FY26 [21] Company Ratings - Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN): Current price at INR 1,008 with a Buy rating [26] - JSW Steel (JSTL IN): Current price at INR 1,163 with a Buy rating [29] Risks to Consider - Lower Spreads: If Chinese HRC margins do not recover or if net exports from China increase, it could pressure export HRC prices and domestic margins [27][31] - Delays in Expansion: Delays in commissioning new projects could lead to lower than expected volumes and potential cost overruns [27][31] - Domestic Demand Disruptions: If domestic demand does not grow as anticipated, it could negatively impact domestic HRC margins and increase reliance on exports [27][31]