国内风电市场需求与整机价格调研

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic wind power market in China, specifically addressing both onshore and offshore wind power sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Onshore Wind Power - The onshore wind power industry is experiencing a strong demand for price recovery after a low point in 2022, with companies needing to improve their financial statements [1][2]. - Despite a decline in bidding volume, the total onshore wind power capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW [3]. - The projected annual installed capacity for onshore wind power is set to be no less than 21.2 GW, which is 30-40% higher than the levels in 2024 [8]. Offshore Wind Power - Offshore wind power maintains a stable gross profit margin, with most projects ensuring over 15% profitability due to high technical barriers and strict certification processes [1][2]. - The overall bidding volume for offshore wind power is expected to grow by approximately 8-10% in 2025, despite a decline in the first half of the year [3]. - There are over 20 GW of offshore wind projects awaiting construction and delivery, with the main issues being construction rates and timeliness rather than turbine delivery or bidding progress [3]. Price Trends - The price of wind turbines is expected to stabilize by the end of 2026, driven by profitability needs, anti-competitive policies, and safety guarantees [3][9]. - The current market price for wind power equipment (excluding towers) is around 1,650 to 1,700 RMB per kW, with a gross profit margin hovering between 3% and 4% [14]. Challenges and Coordination Issues - The industry faces challenges in project coordination due to conflicts of interest among various government departments [6]. - Geopolitical factors and other adverse construction conditions are also hindering progress, although these issues are expected to gradually improve during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][5]. - The lack of a comprehensive national coordination mechanism complicates project advancement, relying heavily on local government efforts [6]. Future Outlook - The offshore wind power sector is projected to see significant growth, with annual new installed capacity expected to reach 15 GW or more during the 15th Five-Year Plan [18]. - Some provinces are initiating numerous offshore wind projects to meet investment subsidy requirements, which necessitate projects to be grid-connected by the end of 2025 [17]. - The overall sentiment regarding the future of both onshore and offshore wind power remains optimistic, with expectations of doubling industry growth compared to the past five years [8]. Changes in Bidding Mechanism - The trend towards larger wind turbines is influencing the bidding mechanism, with a shift towards comprehensive scoring rather than solely lowest price bids [10][11]. - Companies are reducing the weight of price factors in scoring to below 40% or 30%, aiming to enhance fairness and reduce vicious competition [10][11][13]. Additional Important Information - The deep-sea development notification released in January is expected to clarify future market directions and improve revenue through local consumption and hydrogen production [4]. - The industry is currently in a phase of internal discussions regarding the coordination mechanisms, which involve multiple stakeholders and require time for alignment [5].