2025年风能展回顾&风电观点更新

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese wind power industry has ambitious goals, aiming for a cumulative installed capacity of 1,300 GW by 2030 and 5,000 GW by 2035, significantly exceeding the 2020 targets, indicating a doubling of annual new installations to 130 GW over the next five years [1][2] - The domestic wind power market shows high certainty in demand, with an expected installation volume exceeding 110 GW in 2025, driven primarily by economic factors and reduced cost per kilowatt-hour, making the internal rate of return (IRR) attractive [1][4] Global Market Dynamics - The global wind power market is experiencing rapid growth, with the tendering scale expected to increase from 50-60 GW in 2026 to around 80 GW, with significant growth in onshore wind in India, the Middle East, and Brazil, as well as offshore wind in Europe [1][4] - European countries need to add at least 20 GW annually to meet their 2030/2035 targets, indicating a fast expansion phase for offshore wind projects [4] Export and International Expansion - Chinese wind power companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with significant growth in export orders expected in 2025, projected to reach 25-26 GW, accounting for about half of the total tender volume in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1][5][6] - The increase in offshore distances and water depths is driving demand for domestic pipe pile industries to participate in overseas projects [3][8] Pricing and Profitability Trends - The wind power industry has seen a recovery in bidding prices for onshore wind turbines, now in the range of 1,500-1,600 RMB per kW, with expectations for further increases in average delivery prices by the end of 2025 and into 2026, which will help restore profit margins in the turbine manufacturing sector [1][10] - The industry has shifted towards larger turbine models, focusing on operational hours and smart products, which aids in stabilizing the supply chain and reducing costs [10] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include the need for technological advancements, supply chain management, and policy support to meet ambitious growth targets, as project cycles can take over a decade from planning to grid connection [5] - Opportunities arise from the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global market, with major players accelerating their international strategies [5][6] Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the wind power industry is optimistic, with both domestic and international markets expected to experience significant growth in the coming years, particularly in offshore wind [7][12] - The industry is entering a new cycle of growth characterized by a resonance of volume and profitability, with a recommendation to focus on offshore wind and international expansion, including key players in subsea cables, pipe piles, and turbine components [12]