超微电脑SMCI）_2026 财年一季度业绩预告_因交货延迟至二季度导致营收不及预期；重申全年超 330 亿美元营收指引

Summary of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) - Industry: AI server market, specifically targeting tier 2 cloud service providers (CSPs) Key Financial Highlights - F1Q26 Revenue: Expected to be $5.0 billion, missing prior guidance of $6-7 billion and consensus estimates of $6.4/$6.6 billion [2][3] - Design Wins: Recent design wins exceed $12 billion, with large customers ramping multi-quarter deployments [6] - FY2026 Revenue Guidance: Reiterated guidance of at least $33 billion in revenue for FY2026 [2][6] Market Dynamics - Growth Potential: The AI server market is projected to grow at a 66% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, indicating strong demand in the tier 2 CSP/model builder segment [2] - Competitive Landscape: The AI server market is becoming increasingly competitive, with concerns about profitability as products become commoditized [11] Margin and Earnings Outlook - Gross Margin Expectations: Anticipated pressure on margins due to a shift towards larger customers with pricing power [4][6] - Earnings Call: Scheduled for November 4, where further details on gross margins and EPS are expected [2] Investment Thesis - Positioning: SMCI is positioned as a leading AI infrastructure company with strong partnerships with key suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD [11] - Risks: Key risks include potential market share losses and increased competition from enterprise-focused IT hardware suppliers such as Dell and Cisco [11] Valuation and Price Target - Current Price: $52.50 - 12-Month Price Target: $30.00, indicating a potential downside of 42.9% [12] - Rating: Currently rated as Sell with a target reflecting 9x NTM+1 EPS [4][12] Additional Considerations - Order Momentum: Despite the revenue miss, there is encouragement from order momentum, which may alleviate investor concerns about share loss [1][2] - Upside Risks: Include stronger than expected demand for AI servers, market share gains, core operating margin improvement, and customer diversification [10] This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call regarding Super Micro Computer Inc., highlighting its financial performance, market positioning, and future outlook.