亚洲科技 - 存储行业：2026 年 vs 超级周期-Asia Technology-Memory – 2026 vs. Super Cycles

Summary of Conference Call on Memory Industry and Key Companies Industry Overview - The current memory cycle is experiencing an upturn driven by rising hyperscaler capital expenditures and AI inference, leading to increased valuations and focus on the cycle's durability [1][2][3] - Historical patterns indicate that memory cycles often repeat but do not follow a predictable schedule, making it essential to build resilient portfolios [3][4] Key Companies Discussed Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) - Price target raised from W111,000 to W120,000, reflecting an 8% increase [5][27] - Expected EPS growth of 11% for 2026, driven by favorable memory pricing [8][31] - Anticipated DRAM pricing growth of 38% YoY in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 25% [30] - Management guidance suggests a strong outlook for OLED shipments, particularly with the upcoming iPhone 18 foldable launch [30][32] SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Price target increased from W480,000 to W570,000, indicating an 18% rise [5][27] - EPS estimates raised by 27% for 2026, supported by a favorable memory pricing cycle [8][43] - Anticipated DRAM price increases of 20% QoQ in 4Q25 and 22-30% YoY in 2026 [23] Core Insights and Arguments - Memory stocks historically peak 4-8 months before earnings peak, suggesting a contrarian approach may be beneficial when identifying exit points [8][15] - The current market rally is largely driven by AI capital expenditures, with significant implications for memory demand [28] - The average performance of memory stocks has been approximately 178% year-to-date, indicating strong market sentiment [10] - Analysts believe that the consensus is underestimating the potential for a sharp upturn in memory pricing, with a historical average performance of 48% earnings upgrades for Asian memory stocks this year [11][19] Additional Important Points - The memory industry is characterized by high volatility, and while current valuations are not particularly attractive, they do not predict future returns effectively [19] - The potential for margin pressure exists in downstream hardware stocks due to rising input costs [20] - The market is currently optimistic about AI infrastructure spending, which is expected to drive demand for memory products [14][28] - Risks include the possibility of a slowdown in capital expenditures and the unpredictability of market trends, particularly in the AI sector [25][29][44] Financial Projections - Revenue expectations for Samsung Electronics are revised to W330.5 billion for FY25 and W391.1 billion for FY26, with net income projected to reach W38.3 billion in FY25 and W73.9 billion in FY26 [34][36] - For SK Hynix, the financial outlook is similarly positive, with significant increases in EPS and price targets reflecting a robust memory pricing environment [43][44] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the memory industry and the performance outlook for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, highlighting the cyclical nature of the market and the impact of AI on future demand.