NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lending has grown 4.4% since the year-end to £388 billion, consistent with an annual growth rate of over 4% over the past six years [3][5] - Income increased to £12.1 billion, representing a 12.5% rise compared to the first nine months of the previous year [4][5] - Operating profit reached £5.8 billion, with attributable profit at £4.1 billion, and return on tangible equity was reported at 19.5% [5][6] - Earnings per share grew by 32.4% year-on-year, and TNAV per share increased by 14.6% to 362 pence [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mortgage lending increased by over £5 billion for the first nine months, supported by new offers for first-time buyers and family-backed mortgages [3] - Unsecured lending grew by £2.9 billion, or 17.3%, with successful integration of recently acquired Sainsbury's customers [3] - Commercial and institutional lending grew by £7.9 billion, or 5.5%, particularly in infrastructure, social housing, and sustainable finance [3][4] - Deposits increased by 0.8% to £435 billion, reflecting a balance between volume and value in a competitive market [4][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank attracted an additional 70,000 new customers in the quarter, indicating strong customer activity [3] - Assets under management and administration grew by 14.5% to £56 billion, contributing to non-interest income growth [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth, bank-wide simplification, and effective balance sheet and risk management [2] - A new share buyback of £750 million was announced, with 50% already executed [5] - The company aims to support customers while investing in the business and delivering attractive returns to shareholders [5][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite inflation being above the Bank of England's target, the economy is growing with low unemployment and wage growth exceeding inflation [2] - The company expects one further base rate cut this year, with rates projected to reach 3.75% by year-end [10] - Full-year income guidance has been revised to around £16.3 billion, with returns expected to exceed 18% [5][10] Other Important Information - The cost-income ratio improved by five percentage points to 47.8%, with operating expenses up 2.5% to £5.9 billion [5][12] - The CET1 ratio at the end of the third quarter was 14.2%, up 60 basis points from the previous quarter [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Deposit momentum and non-interest income drivers - Management indicated that deposits are up around £3.5 billion year-to-date, with different trends across business lines. Retail fixed-term outflows were noted, but current account balances are up [17][18] - Non-interest income showed strong momentum, particularly in cards, payments, and capital markets, with a focus on maintaining this growth [20] Question: Cost growth expectations and capital management - Management reiterated cost guidance for the year, emphasizing ongoing simplification efforts and the potential for cost control despite inflationary pressures [23][24] - Capital management remains a priority, with expectations for CRD4 impacts in Q4 and a focus on maintaining a CET1 ratio above 13% [28][30] Question: Loan growth sustainability and income drivers - Management expressed confidence in maintaining loan growth above market levels, with a strong track record across all business lines [48][55] - Future income growth is expected to continue, supported by strong customer demand and effective capital deployment [37][41] Question: Non-interest income and market performance - The strong performance in NatWest markets is attributed to strategic integration and robust customer demand, with expectations for continued performance despite market volatility [44][46] Question: Liquidity management and deposit outflows - Management acknowledged a rotation in liquidity from cash to government bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio [79][82]