中国房地产_压力点正在积聚但尚未爆发；开发商土储质量分析-China Property (H_A)_ Pressure points building up but not there yet; developers land bank quality analysis

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Property Sector, highlighting the current market conditions and future expectations for developers and policies affecting the industry. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The sector is expected to trade within a range due to sluggish fundamentals and potential policy support, with a current P/E ratio of 8.5x FY27E, aligning with historical averages [1][2] - National inventory is projected to remain high at 24 months through 2027, but Tier 1 and top 15 cities may see inventory decrease to 15 months by 2026/27 [3][4] - New home sales volume/value is forecasted to decline by 5%-7% and 8%-10% in 2025, with further mid-single-digit declines in 2026 [3][4] Developer Performance - Top developers are focusing on major cities, acquiring land only in the 10-20 largest cities since 2024, despite generating sales from 60 cities [4][5] - Developers with younger land banks (acquired after 2022) tend to have higher returns on invested capital (ROIC), with Binjiang, C&D, and COLI having the youngest land banks [5][6] - The earnings estimates for the sector have been trimmed by single-digit percentages, reflecting minor changes in contracted sales forecasts [5][6] Policy Outlook - Policymakers are expected to emphasize quality housing in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, with no major new policy support anticipated until March 2026 [2][24] - Potential policy tools include tax deductibility for mortgage interest, lower transaction taxes, direct subsidies to home buyers, and relaxation of urban redevelopment restrictions [2][29] - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to provide preliminary guidelines for property policy over the next five years, focusing on balancing growth and risk control [24][27] Risks and Challenges - Secondary home prices have declined by 1.6% MoM in September, nearing the steepest decline observed in the second half of 2023 [21][22] - Real estate investment fell by 20% YoY in September, worsening from a 10% decline in the first half of 2025 [22][23] - Home prices are expected to face significant downside risks, with estimates suggesting a potential 20% correction for entry-level buyers in Tier 1 cities [56][58] Developer Ratings and Forecasts - Price objectives for several developers have been revised, with Binjiang seeing an increase from 12.8 billion to 13.5 billion, while Poly was cut from 8.0 billion to 7.5 billion [8][9] - The contracted sales forecast for key developers has been adjusted, with CMSK seeing an increase due to better-than-expected performance, while COLI and Poly have been trimmed due to deteriorating market conditions [76][79] Conclusion - The China Property Sector is currently facing a challenging environment with sluggish sales, high inventory levels, and declining prices. However, top developers are strategically focusing on major cities and improving their land bank quality, which may position them better for future recovery as policy support is anticipated in the coming years.