中国股票策略_风格切换将持续多久-China Equity Strategy_ How long will the style shift last_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market in China, highlighting a recent style shift from 'growth/tech' to 'value/dividend' during October 2025. The ChiNext and STAR 50 indices have decreased by 7.6% and 8.5% month-to-date (MTD) as of October 20, while the CSI 300 has only dipped 2.2% and the SSE Dividend Index has increased by 5.6% [1][7][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Factors Behind Style Shift: - Investors are rebalancing portfolios due to escalating China-US trade frictions [1][14]. - Profit-taking is occurring after a recent rally in the greater tech sector [1][14]. - Concerns about a slowdown in net inflows into high-beta stocks following adjustments to SMIC's margin-financing conversion rate [1][14]. 2. Medium-Term Outlook: - Despite the near-term style shift, the 'growth' style is expected to remain the main investment style in the medium term. The A-share market typically prices in trade tensions quickly, and the recent corrections have largely absorbed the shock from tariff risks [2][15][16]. - The greater tech sector's turnover has decreased to 32%, down from 38% in late September, indicating reduced crowding risk [2][24]. 3. Investment Recommendations: - The ChiNext Index is recommended for better risk-reward opportunities, as it has a 39% weight in the greater tech sector, which is currently undervalued [3]. - Pro-cyclical sectors such as solar, chemicals, and lithium are preferred under the current market conditions [3][51]. Additional Important Insights - Earnings Growth: The aggregate earnings growth of ChiNext constituents has notably increased to 16.5% in H125, indicating potential for future performance [3]. - High-Dividend Stocks: High-dividend sectors are expected to outperform due to their defensive nature and strong fundamentals, benefiting from long-term inflows from insurers [49]. - Consumer Sector Performance: During the National Day holiday, key retail and catering companies saw a 2.7% YoY sales increase, which is lower than previous holidays, indicating potential challenges in the consumer sector [50]. - Property Market: Property sales volume in China's 30 cities declined by 12% YoY, suggesting a slow recovery for property-related sectors [51]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently experiencing a style shift influenced by external trade tensions and profit-taking in tech stocks. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive for growth-oriented investments, particularly in the ChiNext Index and pro-cyclical sectors. High-dividend stocks are also positioned to perform well in the near term.