光伏向好趋势不变，反内卷持续发力

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a positive trend with rising prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells, while module prices have seen smaller increases. There is expected price growth in Q4 and 2026 due to supply-side reforms and inventory operations, although significant short-term volatility is unlikely, maintaining a stable upward trend [1][2][5]. Company Performance - Upstream companies in the PV sector showed improved performance in Q3, with some turning losses into profits. Notable improvements were seen in GCL-Poly Energy, and other leading companies like Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, and Xinte are expected to benefit from the recovery in polysilicon and wafer segments [1][4][7]. Key Factors Influencing the Industry - Polysilicon capacity consolidation and energy consumption standards are critical factors. Proposed capacity elimination plans (starting at 500,000 tons) and strict energy consumption standards (eliminating 30% of outdated capacity, approximately 1 million tons) will effectively reduce excess capacity and optimize supply-demand relationships [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong synergies in PV modules and energy storage, such as Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy, are recommended for investment due to their high certainty in large-scale markets. The polysilicon segment also presents good investment opportunities, with GCL-Poly's performance improvement being a positive signal [1][6][11]. Market Growth Projections - The European market is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 50% over the next few years, with new installed capacity in 2024 projected to exceed distributed energy. By 2030, the total installed capacity in Europe is anticipated to reach 600 GWh [1][8]. Regional Market Insights - Despite high tariffs on PV modules in the U.S., the impact on costs is relatively small, with expected shipment volumes remaining strong through 2025 and 2026. The Middle East and Australia are also showing growth, with Saudi Arabia aiming for 130 GW of new installations by 2030 [3][9][10]. Global Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage demand is projected to reach an additional 1 TWh by 2030, representing a massive market size comparable to the PV industry. Companies like Sungrow and Chint Electric are well-positioned to benefit from this demand surge [3][11][12]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The PV industry is currently undervalued, with the strongest certainty in polysilicon. The marginal changes in modules and inverters are expected to benefit from the growing domestic and international energy storage demand. Recommendations include leading upstream companies like Tongwei and Daqo, and downstream leaders like LONGi and Sungrow. If performance bottoms out in the next 1-2 quarters, PV valuations are likely to improve further [1][13][14].