沪指10年新高，金银大跌，周期怎么看？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - E-commerce: TikTok, Jitu Express - Aviation: China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Huaxia Airlines - Express Delivery: YTO Express, Shentong Express - Shipping: China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development - Lithium Industry: New Zobang - Coal Industry: Yancoal Energy, Guanghui Energy, Huayang Co., China Coal Energy - Chemical Industry: Zanyu Technology - Fertilizer Industry: Yara International, Dongfang Tower, Salt Lake Co. - Non-ferrous Metals: Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium Core Points and Arguments - E-commerce Growth: TikTok's e-commerce growth is expected to reach 30%, with Jitu Express showing a volume growth of over 65% in the first three quarters. Latin America's e-commerce penetration is only 15%, indicating significant potential for growth [1][2] - Aviation Sector Recovery: Airlines are benefiting from improved ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a notable increase in ticket prices by 0.5% during the National Day holiday and subsequent weeks. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China [4] - Express Delivery Valuation: The express delivery sector remains attractive, with YTO Express and Shentong Express expected to have PE ratios of 9 and 8-9 respectively next year. The trend of reducing internal competition continues [4] - Shipping Market Dynamics: The commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to significantly improve the supply-demand relationship for bulk carriers, with a projected shortfall of 232 Capesize vessels. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Energy and Haitong Development [5] - Lithium Hydrofluoric Acid Price Surge: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has nearly doubled, reaching 92,500 CNY/ton, driven by increased demand, particularly from energy storage orders. The industry operating rate is at 77%, with inventory decreasing [9] - Coal Market Outlook: Coal production is expected to decline if companies do not exceed production limits, while demand remains strong. Recent coal prices have surged to 750-800 CNY, with potential for further increases [15][16] - Chemical Industry Performance: The chemical product price index remains stable, with specific products like polyester showing price fluctuations. The demand for fertilizers is expected to remain strong despite entering a seasonal lull [12][7] - Fertilizer Market Trends: Potash fertilizer inventory has slightly increased but remains low. The price of phosphate rock is stable, with a focus on companies with significant growth potential like Yara International and Dongfang Tower [7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices: Recent geopolitical events have influenced oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 7.5% to $61.44 per barrel. OPEC's production increase and signs of a slowing U.S. economy may exert downward pressure on prices [6] - Winter Heating Season Impact: The winter heating season is expected to significantly affect coal demand, with an anticipated consumption increase of 50 million tons if heating starts early. This could lead to a substantial reduction in inventory levels [17][18] - Investment Recommendations: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios in the coal sector, such as Yancoal Energy and Guanghui Energy, as they are expected to perform well in the upcoming winter season [19]