锂业会议要点及化工领域电池投资机会Lithium conference takeaways and battery plays in Chem-Land

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Chemicals Industry Industry Overview - The lithium supply chain is increasingly geographically diverse, but refining remains dominated by China, which holds 67% of the lithium refining market [1][1] - North America is expected to grow its mining and refining capacity, with estimates of 600kt and 700kt LCE respectively over the next 10 years [1][1] - Even with all announced projects, North America is projected to have only a modest surplus by 2035 due to high costs and competition from China [1][1] - Recent US government actions to secure lithium supply have been mixed, negatively impacting companies like Lithium Americas [1][1] - The US is unlikely to achieve supply-chain independence from China in the near term due to the lack of domestic precursor and cathode production [1][1] Key Market Trends - Global battery demand is accelerating, driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS), with cell prices reaching record lows at $57/kWh [2][2] - ESS deployments have increased sharply, with a 51% rise globally and 27% in the US, with China leading in grid-scale storage [2][2] - Recycling is becoming a critical solution for raw material deficits as technologies advance [2][2] Company Highlights Air Products - Air Products provides essential industrial gases for all stages of lithium-ion battery production, including mining, refining, and recycling [7][7] - The company is positioned as a key enabler of electrification trends, with a broad range of gas-handling technologies [8][8] - Current sales exposure to EV/battery applications is minimal but has potential for growth as new capacities come online [9][9] Axalta - Axalta focuses on safety and protection coatings for EV batteries, with products like Alesta e-PRO for electrical insulation and fire resistance [10][10] - The company is expanding its reach in the electrification market, particularly with its Voltatex Electrical Insulation Systems [11][11] - Axalta's current exposure to EV battery and motor electrification growth is estimated at 2% of total sales [13][13] DuPont - DuPont offers a wide range of materials for the EV ecosystem, including adhesives and coatings that enhance battery performance [15][15] - The company is undergoing a planned separation to focus on distinct channels of EV exposure, with IndustrialsCo retaining manufacturing-related products and Qnity focusing on electronics [18][18] Huntsman - Huntsman provides diverse material technologies for EV battery manufacturing and vehicle performance, with a current sales exposure to EVs/batteries estimated at 2% [24][24] - The company emphasizes its strong footprint in the foams space, particularly in Europe, with growth potential in North America [21][21] Linde - Linde supplies industrial gases and coatings for every stage of the lithium-ion battery value chain, with a focus on atmosphere control and cryogenic freezing [25][25] - The company has a significant customer base in cell manufacturing, particularly in Asia, and is expanding its presence in the EV market [29][29] PPG - PPG offers a comprehensive coatings portfolio for EV batteries, including thermal management and fire protection solutions [30][30] - The company is leveraging its existing automotive coatings technology to expand into battery-related applications, positioning itself for growth in line with the EV market [32][32] Investment Ratings - Albemarle is rated Neutral, with long-term drivers intact but near-term equity upside muddled by market conditions [1][1] - Air Products and Huntsman are rated Underperform, while Axalta, DuPont, Linde, and PPG are rated with varying degrees of potential based on their exposure to the EV market [52][52][53][53] Conclusion - The chemicals industry is experiencing significant changes driven by the electrification of transportation and energy storage solutions - Companies are adapting their product offerings to meet the growing demand for EVs and battery technologies, with varying levels of exposure and investment potential - The dominance of China in the lithium refining market poses challenges for North American companies seeking to establish a more independent supply chain