香港股票策略：香港的复苏 -2026 年初步展望及首选标的Hong Kong Equity Strategy_ Hong Kong‘s comeback_ early thoughts on 2026 and top picks

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Hong Kong Equity Market - Current Market Performance: Hong Kong's equity market (MXHK) has shown a 26% year-to-date return in US terms, making it the cheapest market in the Asia-Pacific region excluding ASEAN, with a forward P/E ratio of -0.3 standard deviations compared to its 10-year average of 16x [2][76] Core Insights and Arguments - Market Targets: The end-2025 targets for the MXHK index are maintained at 13,000 (base) and 14,000 (bullish). For 2026, potential upside targets are set at 14,366, 15,522, and 16,679, reflecting growth assumptions of 6% and 9% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][8] - Synchronized Recovery: A synchronized recovery across various sectors in Hong Kong is noted, with significant improvements in IPO fundraising, residential property prices, and retail sales growth [5][58] - Macau Gaming Sector: The Macau gaming sector is experiencing a cyclical upturn, with GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) showing a 13% year-on-year increase in 3Q25, reaching MOP62.6 billion, which is 88% of pre-COVID levels [52][57] - Investment Inflows: There has been a notable increase in Southbound inflows to Hong Kong, reaching a record HK$1.17 trillion in 9M25, approximately 2.2 times the level of 2024 [38][49] Important but Overlooked Content - Headwinds: Near-term challenges include renewed US-China tensions, rising HIBOR rates, potential oversupply from IPO lock-up expirations, and risks in the commercial real estate sector [5][100] - Housing Market Stabilization: After a 27% correction since 2021, Hong Kong's housing market is stabilizing, with forecasts of a 3-5% year-on-year price increase in 2026 [45][49] - Market Sentiment Index: The JPM HK Market Sentiment Index indicates a positive outlook, having reached a decade high of +1.5 standard deviations in September 2025, suggesting strong capital market activities [70][65] - Valuation Comparison: Despite strong performance, MXHK trades at a forward P/E ratio that is -0.3 standard deviations below its 10-year average, indicating compelling valuation compared to historical levels and regional peers [76][78] Top Picks for 2026 - Recommended Stocks: - Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.O): Capital market strength - HKEX (0388.HK): Financials - Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) and MGM China (2282.HK): Macau gaming upcycle - Techtronic Industries (0669.HK): Resilient overseas demand - Henderson Land Development (0012.HK), China State Construction International (3311.HK), and MTR Corp Ltd (0066.HK): Northern Metropolis development [6][2] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Hong Kong equity market.