中国光伏与储能 - 储能专家电话会议要点_储能专家电话会议要点- China solar & energy storage - ESS expert call takeaways_ ESS expert call takeaways

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Expert Call on Solar Energy Storage Systems (ESS) Industry Overview - Industry: Solar Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - Date of Call: 22 October 2025 Key Markets and Insights United States - Demand Outlook: Unclear for 2026-27 due to policy uncertainties - Installation Forecast: Expected ESS installation of 45-60 GWh in 2026E, compared to approximately 50 GWh in 2025E [1] - Average Selling Price (ASP): Likely to remain strong in 2026E due to better economics and project returns [1] - Data Center Demand: Estimated annual demand of around 10 GWh based on a 10 GW data center buildout, with a storage-to-generation ratio of 20-40% and four-hour storage duration [1] Europe - Demand Growth: Strong growth expected into 2026-27E - Installation Forecast for 2025E: Approximately 30 GWh, with breakdowns of ~10 GWh from residential, ~5 GWh from commercial and industrial (C&I), and ~15 GWh from utility sectors [2] - CAGR Projections: Positive outlook for C&I and utility-scale ESS installations, with likely CAGRs of 30-40% and over 40%, respectively, driven by robust demand and supportive policies [2] China - Supply Shortage: Structural supply shortage of ESS battery cells expected to continue into 2026E - Causes of Shortage: Driven by robust downstream demand and limited capacity for mainstream products as manufacturers shift to next-generation products [3] - Policy Support: Anticipated sustainable policy support for ESS installation, with ASP less likely to fall subsequently [3] Middle East - Demand Status: Robust demand despite delayed installations - Installation Forecast: Expected ESS installation of ~20 GWh, behind the scheduled 30 GWh due to project delays [4] - Future Projections: Confidence in demand with expected installations of 30-35 GWh in 2026E and a CAGR of over 30% thereafter [4] - Tender Activity: Anticipation of 70 GWh project tenders in 2H25 to support installations in 2026-27E [4] Additional Insights - The expert highlighted the importance of policy frameworks in shaping the demand outlook across different regions, emphasizing the need for clarity in US policies to foster growth in the ESS market [1][2][3][4] - The shift towards next-generation battery technologies in China indicates a long-term strategic move by manufacturers, which may impact short-term supply dynamics [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the solar energy storage systems industry, focusing on demand forecasts, market dynamics, and regional variations.