10 月美联储 FOMC 会议前瞻_降息 25 个基点并为结束缩表做准备October FOMC Preview_ 25bp Rate Cut and Prepare for the End of QT

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve Monitor - October FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The document focuses on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically regarding interest rates and balance sheet normalization in the context of the U.S. economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.75-4.0% and maintain an easing bias, indicating further rate cuts may follow [5][7][12] 2. Balance Sheet Normalization: The Fed is anticipated to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in January 2026, effective from February 2026, with risks leaning towards an earlier announcement in October or December [5][8][67] 3. IORB Adjustments: An additional reduction of 5bp in the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is expected in either October or December, preparing for the end of QT [5][9][33] 4. Funding Market Conditions: Current conditions in funding markets are attributed more to the frequency and size of net U.S. Treasury settlements rather than a liquidity shortage, allowing the Fed to continue QT [5][9] 5. Foreign Exchange Outlook: The October meeting is not expected to significantly impact the U.S. dollar (USD), with a bearish outlook as the Fed cuts rates and U.S. real rates decline [5][9] Additional Important Insights 1. Economic Data Constraints: The ongoing government shutdown limits the availability of economic data, which may affect the Fed's guidance beyond year-end [5][13][39] 2. Labor Market Concerns: There are indications of a softening labor market, with recent employment data showing a decline in private employment and a decrease in the labor market differential [15][19][20] 3. Inflation Trends: Inflation expectations remain stable, with the Fed's target of 2% being closely monitored, and recent data suggesting inflation may firm slightly [20][24] 4. Communication Strategy: The Fed's communication strategy will be crucial in managing market expectations regarding future rate cuts and the overall economic outlook [38][40] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve is poised to implement further rate cuts in response to economic conditions, with a focus on balancing risks to employment and inflation. The end of QT is on the horizon, and the Fed's communication will play a vital role in shaping market perceptions and expectations moving forward.