我们关注的 10 张图表_“金发姑娘” 行情持续摆脱看空情绪-10 charts we are watching_ Goldilocks continues to escape the bears (PRESENTATION)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global asset allocation strategies and macroeconomic conditions impacting various asset classes, particularly equities and bonds [2][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Asset Allocation Preferences: - The report indicates a modestly pro-risk stance for both 3-month and 12-month horizons, with equities being overweight (OW) across various indices including S&P 500 and MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan [5][6]. - Commodities and credit are generally neutral, while cash and certain bonds are underweight (UW) [5][6]. 2. Global Economic Growth Projections: - Real GDP growth estimates for 2024 and 2025 show the USA at 2.8% and 2.0% respectively, while China is projected at 5.0% and 4.3% [7]. - Emerging markets are expected to grow at 4.1% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 4.0% in 2025 [7]. 3. Inflation Forecasts: - CPI projections indicate a decline in inflation rates across major economies, with the USA expected to drop from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% by 2026 [8]. - The Euro area is projected to see a decrease from 5.4% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2026 [8]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning: - Cross-asset sentiment has rebounded but remains cautious, with indicators showing a recovery in risk appetite despite tariff concerns [15][20]. - The report notes that market narratives have shifted, with a preference for a 'Goldilocks' scenario where growth is stable and inflation is controlled [23][25]. 5. Valuation Insights: - Current macro conditions support US equity valuations, with lower inflation generally boosting these valuations [34][36]. - The earnings/bond yield gap has turned negative, reflecting cyclical growth optimism [37]. 6. Risk Assessment: - The probability of significant drawdowns in the S&P 500 remains elevated due to high valuations and policy uncertainty [54][66]. - The report highlights a modestly negative asymmetry in equity tail risk in the near term [51]. 7. Sector Performance: - Banks globally have benefited from higher rates, with recent performance driven by additional tailwinds [120]. - The report suggests that selective equity diversifiers, particularly in global infrastructure and low volatility stocks, have outperformed despite rising yields [118]. Additional Important Insights - Long-Term Asset Allocation Strategy: - The report emphasizes that market-value weighted benchmarks may not be optimal for both active and passive multi-asset portfolios, suggesting a need for a more tailored approach [124][135]. - It discusses the potential benefits of broader diversification, including alternatives, to improve risk/reward profiles since 1990 [135][138]. - US Exceptionalism: - The report notes that US assets have become increasingly dominant in global investor portfolios, with US equity holdings rising significantly [94][96]. - Currency and FX Risks: - Investors are advised to manage risks associated with potential dollar downside, particularly in relation to foreign exchange [107][110]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the market, economic forecasts, and strategic asset allocation considerations.