中国房地产 - 四中全会确立新发展模式并防范风险-China Property-The Forth Plenum Establish New Development Model & Prevent Risks

Summary of China Property Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Event: CPC Forth Plenary Session (20-23 Oct) Key Points and Arguments 1. Development Model and Economic Focus: The Plenary emphasized promoting high-quality development and advancing people-centric urbanization, indicating a shift in focus from real estate to manufacturing and technology sectors. The property sector is expected to account for an estimated 13% of GDP by 2025, down from a peak of 32% [1][1][1] 2. Economic Stabilization: The limited mention of property and absence of new stimulus measures suggest a focus on stabilization rather than stimulus. The decline in real estate investment (REI) was offset by growth in other sectors, contributing to a resilient GDP growth of 4.8% in Q3 2025 [1][1][1] 3. Impact on Household Confidence: With property assets constituting 66% of household assets, the decline in home prices is negatively affecting household confidence and consumption, particularly among the working class. Measures to support home prices in core cities are anticipated by 2026 [1][1][1] 4. New Development Model: The new development model aims to transform the property industry by focusing on quality improvement rather than scale expansion. This shift is expected to benefit luxury-home builders and landlords of recurring profit [1][1][1] 5. Three-Pronged Housing System: The proposed housing system includes commodity housing for high-end buyers, rental housing for urban migrants, and social housing for low-income classes. It is expected that rental and social housing could account for approximately 45% of supply in the future [2][2][2] 6. Optimization of Production Factors: A linkage mechanism to optimize the allocation of production factors (people, housing, land, and capital) is proposed to coordinate land supply, property supply, and government budget in relation to population flow [2][2][2] 7. Property Development Improvements: Recommendations include improving property development, financing, sales systems, and supervision, as well as deepening urban renewal in key cities [2][2][2] 8. Promotion of Good-Quality Homes: The focus will be on renovating aged buildings, energy-saving measures, and adopting advanced construction technologies [2][2][2] Additional Important Content - Analyst Ratings and Valuations: The report includes various company valuations and ratings, indicating a significant NAV discount for many property companies as of October 23, 2025. The average NAV discount for H-share companies is noted to be -65% [5][8][8] - Investment Recommendations: The report provides investment ratings for various companies, with a mix of "Buy," "Neutral," and "Sell" ratings based on expected total returns and risk assessments [22][24][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting the shift in focus towards stabilization and quality improvement in the industry.