投资者演示文稿 - 全会后的政策与经济展望-Investor Presentation-Policy and economic outlook post Plenum

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus on Technological Self-Sufficiency and Innovation: The top priority post-Plenum is on achieving technological self-sufficiency and fostering innovation within China [3][5][12] - Economic Outlook: The economic targets for 2026 are projected to include a real GDP growth rate of approximately 5% [3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Five-Year Plan (FYP): The upcoming FYP will outline medium-term goals for GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization, carbon emissions, social welfare coverage, and development targets for key industries [3][4] - Incremental Policy Changes: The policy suggestions document expected in late October will likely emphasize supply-centric policies with a gradual approach to social welfare reform [3][4] - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to align broadly with 2025, with additional stimulus measures dependent on external demand conditions [3][4] Technological Developments - Investment in Technology: A new tech board for the bond market is being established to facilitate direct debt financing for tech companies, with a state startup fund potentially reaching RMB 1 trillion [12][13] - Increased Tech Spending: On-budget tech spending is projected to reach RMB 1.2 trillion, representing an 8.3% year-on-year increase compared to 4.4% for overall fiscal spending [12][13] AI and Labor Market Dynamics - AI's Impact on Labor: The introduction of generative AI is expected to create significant labor-equivalent value, but there may be a dominant labor displacement effect during the transition [33][34] - Job Creation and Education: There is a need for more support in AI-oriented education and career training to mitigate the impact of AI on employment [34][35] Social Welfare Reform - Rising Social Welfare Spending: Increased social welfare spending is associated with a higher consumption share in GDP, indicating a need for reform in this area [36][37] - Financial Sustainability of Reforms: The proposed increase in rural pension benefits is expected to incur a modest additional fiscal burden, estimated at around 1% of GDP per year [40][41] Housing Market Insights - Housing Investment Trends: The housing market is undergoing deleveraging, with significant uncertainty regarding future housing prices [45][47] - Inventory Management: Approximately RMB 3 trillion in funding is needed to bring housing inventory in tier 1 and tier 2 cities to healthier levels [52][53] Policy Measures and Economic Strategies - "5R" Reflation Strategy: A comprehensive strategy is proposed to widen the fiscal deficit and implement consumption-focused fiscal packages, alongside social welfare reforms [54][55] - Interest Subsidies and Education Initiatives: Potential subsidies for consumer loans and free preschool education are part of the government's strategy to stimulate the economy [56][57] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the critical focus on technological innovation, social welfare reform, and housing market stabilization as key areas for China's economic strategy moving forward. The emphasis on AI and its implications for the labor market also underscores the need for proactive measures in education and job creation.