金蝶_2025 年 9 月 ARR 同比增长 18% 至 39 亿元人民币；人工智能集成与订阅业务仍是核心焦点；买入

Summary of Kingdee (0268.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited (0268.HK) - Industry: Software and Cloud Services Key Points Financial Performance - Kingdee reported an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of 18% YoY to Rmb3.86 billion by the end of September 2025, compared to 18.5% YoY to Rmb3.73 billion by the end of June 2025 [1][5][7] - The net addition to ARR was Rmb130 million, accounting for 41% of the estimated ARR net additions for the second half of 2025, consistent with historical trends [1][5] - The company's Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale cloud services was 105% in Q3, down from 108% in the first half of 2025 [1][5][12] Revenue Segmentation - By segment, the NDR for: - Large-scale cloud (Cosmic/Constellation): 105% - Mid-scale cloud (Galaxy): 95% - SME cloud (Stellar/Jingdou): 93%/88% in Q3 [1][5][12] Future Outlook - Kingdee expects ARR to grow 18% YoY by the end of 2025, driven by AI integration and deeper client penetration [1][7] - The company continues to prioritize AI-driven solutions and subscription models, with cloud subscription revenues contributing 53% of total revenues in the first half of 2025 [1][7] Earnings Revision - Earnings for 2025 have been revised down by 2%, while 2026-2027 earnings remain largely unchanged. The revenue growth for the mid-scale cloud business has been fine-tuned [1][8] - Projected revenues for 2025E are Rmb7.044 billion, with a 23% CAGR expected from 2025 to 2027 [1][8][9] Valuation - The target price for Kingdee is revised to HK$18.98, based on a blend of DCF and P/S methodologies, implying a 28.2% upside from the current price of HK$14.81 [1][11][22] - The updated 2026E P/S ratio is 6.4x, based on the average P/S valuation of Kingdee's software peers [1][11][18] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Weaker-than-expected demand for ERP digitization 2. Slower product development processes 3. Increased talent and labor costs [1][19] Additional Insights - Kingdee's focus on AI and subscription services is expected to enhance profitability and scale [1][7] - The company has established relationships with new clients, including BAIC, Yuchai Machinery, and Bloomage Biotech, which may further support revenue growth [1][7] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Kingdee's financial performance, future outlook, earnings revisions, valuation, and associated risks.