中国医疗保健-从生存到发展 - 深度剖析中国小盘生物技术企业；首次覆盖 Abbisko 并给予买入评级-China Healthcare_ Biotechnology_ From Survive to Thrive - Deep-dive on China's small-cap biotech; initiate on Abbisko at Buy

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Small-cap biotechnology in China - Context: The sector is at an inflection point after a four-year down cycle since 2021, with a structural upside for China's innovative drug pipeline in a global context [1][11][34] Core Insights and Arguments - Survive-to-Thrive Roadmap: Emphasis on efficient R&D, differentiated pipeline, and committed global partnerships as key growth drivers for small-cap biotech companies [1][11][12] - US Small-Cap Biotech Learnings: Historical performance shows a significant divergence between Thrivers (33X growth in market cap from 2005-2025) and Non-thrivers (66% shrinkage) [2][12][19] - Differentiated Pipeline: Companies focusing on rare diseases have shown better performance due to less costly and quicker drug development processes [2][12][30] - Abbisko Therapeutics: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating, targeting a 12-month DCF-based price of HK$27.10, indicating a 91% upside potential [4][60] Abbisko Therapeutics Highlights - Pipeline: Abbisko has a robust pipeline of 22 drug candidates, including 12 in clinical stages, with pimicotinib (CSF-1R inhibitor) expected to achieve US$1.6 billion in risk-adjusted peak sales [4][15][60] - Global Partnership: Strong endorsement from Merck KGaA enhances Abbisko's global visibility and market potential [4][15][60] - R&D Expertise: Abbisko's deep know-how in small-molecule R&D supports its strategic expansion roadmap into various therapeutic areas [4][15][60] Important but Overlooked Aspects - Cash Runway Extension: Companies are focusing on extending their cash runway, with more than half expected to have over five years of cash runway by 2025 [43][44] - Strategic Pivots: Companies are making aggressive strategic pivots, such as focusing on early-stage pipelines and leveraging partnerships to maximize asset value [47][48][51] - Market Dynamics: The funding environment for China healthcare is bottoming out, with a notable turnaround in private biotech funding expected [35][38] Conclusion - The small-cap biotech sector in China is transitioning from survival to growth, with companies like Abbisko positioned well for future success through strategic partnerships, efficient R&D, and a differentiated pipeline. The insights drawn from the US small-cap biotech experience provide valuable lessons for navigating this evolving landscape [1][11][12][60]