AI电力需求测算

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the data center industry in China, particularly its transformation driven by AI and government policies [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Government Support: The Chinese government aims for intelligent computing to account for 35% of total computing power by 2025, as outlined in the "High-Quality Development Action Plan for Computing Infrastructure" [4]. - Electricity Consumption: Data center electricity consumption is projected to reach 166 billion kWh in 2024, representing 1.7% of total national electricity consumption. This is expected to grow significantly due to AI demands and projects like "East Data West Computing" [2][5]. - Future Projections: By 2030, total electricity consumption by data centers is expected to reach 411.4 billion kWh, and by 2035, it could rise to 1,026.2 billion kWh, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.33% from 2024 to 2030 [2][11]. - Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE): The average PUE is currently 1.46, with a target to reduce it to 1.25 by 2035. This indicates limited room for improvement in energy efficiency [8]. - IT Equipment Power Consumption: The power consumption of IT equipment per unit of computing capacity is expected to decrease by 8% annually, reaching 162 million kWh by 2035 [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - Load Characteristics: The demand for AI is causing a shift in load characteristics from stable to frequent short-term fluctuations, necessitating more flexible energy sources like thermal power [12]. - Role of Thermal Power: Thermal power is evolving from merely providing electricity to becoming a key stabilizing force in the new energy system, essential for balancing supply and demand fluctuations [13]. - Future Demand for Thermal Power: By 2030, the additional electricity demand from data centers is expected to require an increase of 40 million kW in thermal power capacity, with an average load of 27.98 million kW [14]. - Market Performance of Thermal Power: Despite a decline in competitiveness, thermal power remains strong in northern regions due to less impact from renewable energy fluctuations [15]. - Valuation and Investment Outlook: Current market valuations for thermal power companies are around 10 times earnings, but there is potential for revaluation due to increasing energy demands and the unique role of thermal power in the new energy landscape [16][17].