中美进入新一轮谈判，怎么看出口链？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Export Chain Companies: Chinese export chain companies are rapidly increasing their global market share in 2025, particularly in the forklift and construction machinery sectors, by intensifying development efforts in South America and Africa, leading to strong growth in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Africa, and South America markets [1][5] - European and American Markets: The European market is expected to recover due to the anticipated ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and infrastructure projects. The U.S. market shows positive growth in industrial machinery and forklifts, with a projected recovery in 2026, benefiting from Chinese market penetration [1][6] Company Performance - Lian De Co.: Reported a 9.27% year-on-year revenue increase, with a quarterly revenue growth of 25%. Order volume grew by 41% in the quarter, with a gross margin of 44.29% and a net profit increase of 2.4 percentage points. The Ningde factory has become profitable, and increased capacity at the U.S. factory is expected to enhance profits [1][7] - Hao Mai Technology: Achieved unexpected progress through three driving forces: tire molds, large components, and machine tools. The tire mold segment showed significant benefits, while the large components segment benefited from a 30-40% demand increase in the wind power sector [1][7] - Niu Wei Co.: Future growth points include increased demand for oil service equipment from Middle Eastern oil and gas investments, high delivery levels of FPSO and LNG ship orders, new product approvals from Saudi Aramco, and good growth in nuclear power and water treatment sectors. The company has a full order book and good cash collection [1][8] Financial Performance - Company's Q3 Results: The company reported a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, a 26% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 33% increase. Overall, the company's quarterly and annual performance growth remains stable at around 20-30% [1][9] - Chunfeng Power: Faced some impacts from tariff issues in Q3 but is progressing well with its Mexican factory. The company expects to sell approximately 600,000 electric vehicles in 2025, potentially reaching 1 million in 2026, with a chance to turn profitable [1][12] Market Dynamics - Impact of U.S.-China Talks: Recent U.S.-China talks resulted in a "very successful framework" agreement, which could benefit export chain companies. Many companies have adjusted their overseas production bases and tariff estimates, leading to stable performance predictions for the next year despite potential new tariffs [2] - General Machinery Sector: The general machinery sector is indirectly affected by the global trade environment, with high-end manufacturing demand growing significantly. However, traditional manufacturing and some regional exports are impacted by local demand downturns and trade frictions [1][17] Investment Recommendations - Focus Areas: It is recommended to focus on sectors with high growth potential, including automotive, aerospace, high-end manufacturing, and liquid cooling robotics. Companies like Jinshang Yuchuang, which saw order growth exceeding 40% in August, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [1][20] Noteworthy Companies - Hai Tian International: Holds a nearly 20% market share in the global injection molding machine market. Despite a decline in orders from April to September, there was a recovery in September. The current valuation is around 10 times, expected to drop to about 9 times next year, indicating long-term investment value amid global supply chain restructuring [1][21] - A-Share Market: Companies such as Niu Wei CNC, Hai Xin Military Industry, and Yi Zhi Mi are noted for their stable performance and reasonable valuations, making them worthy of attention in the A-share market [1][22]