大中华半导体行业 - 后端观察：台湾封测厂 2026 年将提价-Greater China Semiconductors-Backend Observations Taiwan OSAT to Hike Price in 2026

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing a price hike due to strong demand for AI semiconductors and some recovery in general servers and niche memory [2][12] - The overall industry view has been upgraded to "attractive" due to robust AI demand [2][12] Key Companies Discussed - ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (ASE): Price target raised to NT$228, reflecting strong demand for CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) and better pricing power [4][34] - King Yuan Electronics Co. Ltd. (KYEC): Price target raised to NT$218, benefiting from AI GPU demand and share gains in chip probing and ASIC testing [4][22] - MediaTek: Mentioned as a potential victim of the price hikes in the semiconductor supply chain [1] Core Insights - Price Increases: - Advanced packaging prices are expected to rise by 5-10% in 2026, marking the first price upcycle since the COVID-19 chip shortage [3][12] - TSMC has finalized a wafer price hike of 3-5% for 2026, indicating improved pricing power among leading-edge foundry and memory vendors [2][12] - Capacity Constraints: - ASE and KYEC are facing tight capacity, leading to a shift from lower-margin products to AI-related products [3][15] - ASE's CoWoS capacity is nearly fully utilized, with expectations to double by 2026 due to overflow demand from TSMC [20][34] - Material Cost Inflation: Rising costs for materials such as gold, copper, and BT substrate are contributing to the price hikes [3] Financial Performance and Projections - ASE's 3Q25 Results: Preliminary revenue is expected to be up 12% Q/Q, driven by better FX and higher utilization rates [34] - KYEC's Revenue Expectations: Anticipated revenue growth in low-teens Q/Q for 4Q25, supported by strong AI demand [27][35] - Earnings Estimates: - EPS estimates for ASE have been raised to NT$2.46 for 3Q25, higher than consensus estimates [34] - EPS for KYEC is expected to maintain flattish capex for 2026, reflecting strong demand [27] Market Dynamics - Competitive Landscape: - JCET is underperforming due to lower fab utilization and intense competition in the China market [5][22] - ASE and KYEC are recommended for investment ahead of earnings due to their strong market positions and upcoming price hikes [4][16] Additional Insights - Capex Trends: KYEC's capex for 2026 has been raised from NT$15 billion to NT$37 billion to reflect strong demand [26] - Testing Revenue: KYEC is rejecting some lower-margin memory testing orders due to supply tightness, focusing instead on higher-margin AI-related testing [27][31] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Greater China semiconductor industry, highlighting the significant trends, company performances, and market dynamics.