存储芯片出口追踪：三星 2025 年三季度 HBM 业务存在上行空间，SK 海力士则面临下行压力-Korea Memory Export Tracker Upside to Samsung's 3Q25 HBM, & Downside to SK hynix's

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Korean memory export market, specifically High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with a detailed analysis of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix [1][10]. Core Insights - Samsung's HBM Revenue: There is an upside risk to Samsung's 3Q25 HBM revenue, indicating potential growth beyond previous forecasts [2][10]. - SK hynix's HBM Revenue: Conversely, there is a downside risk to SK hynix's 3Q25 HBM revenue, suggesting weaker performance than expected [2][10]. - Export Data Correlation: The correlation between Korean multichip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia and the HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix is strong, with R² values of 0.97 for overall exports and 0.98 for SK hynix [2][10]. - Geographical Insights: Most HBM exports are directed to Taiwan, with some shipments to Malaysia, primarily for high-end Intel CPUs [3][10]. Shipment Details - Samsung's Shipments: Samsung likely shipped US$0.5-1 billion worth of HBM to Hong Kong/China in 4Q24 but ceased after the US export ban in January 2025 [4][10]. - Export Breakdown: Exports are primarily from South Chungcheong Province for Samsung and North Chungcheong Province and Icheon for SK hynix, aligning with their backend production facilities [10][18]. Revenue and Pricing Trends - Revenue/Weight Data: This data serves as a directional indicator for HBM pricing, showing a correlation with HBM prices, particularly during technology transitions [5][38]. - Future Tracking: The plan is to regularly track Korean export data, which provides early indications of HBM revenue for both companies, potentially 75 days before earnings releases [6][41]. Investment Ratings - Samsung Electronics: Rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 95,000 [8][49]. - SK hynix: Also rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 400,000 [9][51]. Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: Both companies face risks from potential changes in the pricing environment, demand fluctuations, and competition from Chinese memory manufacturers [52][53]. Additional Insights - Export Data Reliability: The export data is deemed reliable, correlating well with company revenues and customs data, indicating a robust methodology for tracking HBM revenues [6][41]. - Future HBM Developments: The transition from HBM3 to HBM3E and the anticipated shift to HBM4 are expected to influence pricing and revenue trends significantly [5][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the HBM market in relation to Samsung and SK hynix.