Ternium(US:TX)2025-10-29 13:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per tonne, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [4][11] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [11][12] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdown, but the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to remain consistent with the previous quarter [11][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [13][14] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs in one of the Mexican operations [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent steel consumption is projected to decrease by 10% in 2025, with expectations of a 4% recovery in 2026 driven by infrastructure growth [48] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with a 5% growth expectation in apparent steel demand for 2025, despite challenges from unfairly traded imports [8][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to the evolving global trade environment [9][10] - The company supports policies that promote regional integration and fair competition within the USMCA framework [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty in the business environment due to ongoing changes in the U.S. tariff framework, but expressed optimism about structural reforms in Argentina following the recent elections [5][22] - The company anticipates a slight decline in prices in Mexico and Argentina for Q4 2025, but expects stability in North American prices [38][42] Other Important Information - Ternium's board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as last year [4][17] - The company received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic opportunities post-Argentina elections - Management indicated that the elections would lead to structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in Argentina, but no immediate changes to ownership structure are planned [21][23] Question: Ternium's plan if U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions - The company plans to continue with its investment strategy, anticipating that melt and pour conditions will remain relevant, especially in the automotive sector [27][29] Question: Cash cost outlook for Q4 - Management expects ongoing efficiencies in operations, with a slight decrease in cash costs anticipated in Mexico and Argentina [35][42] Question: Demand outlook for Mexico in 2026 - A recovery in demand is expected in 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in trade between the U.S. and Mexico [48][50] Question: Update on the Pesquería project - The new galvanized line is set to start production in December, with the overall project on budget and timeline [72][74] Question: Expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026 - Management aims for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, with ongoing efforts to improve margins despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [84][85]