Expand Energy Corporation(EXE) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has reduced well costs by over 25%, and year-to-date costs are 30% lower than peers based on third-party well proposals [5][6] - The average breakeven cost is now less than $2.75 across the basin, showing significant improvement from previous estimates [5][58] - The company has eliminated $1.2 billion in gross debt and returned nearly $850 million to shareholders [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hanzo asset position has seen a meaningful step change in efficiency and performance, allowing the company to deliver the same production with fewer rigs [4][5] - Average well productivity is approximately 40% greater than the basin average, a trend expected to continue [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas demand is expected to grow by 20% by the end of the decade, driven by LNG power and industrial growth [7][8] - The company is positioned to serve customers eager for reliable and flexible supply, particularly along the Gulf Coast where competition is increasing [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to connect its global scale to growing markets, focusing on providing affordable, reliable, lower carbon energy [7][8] - The marketing strategy is evolving from value protection to value creation, enhancing the marketing and commercial organization to capitalize on its position as North America's largest natural gas producer [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes there is significant opportunity to expand the value of natural gas and is prepared to deliver 7.5 BCF per day of production in 2026, contingent on market conditions [6][10] - The company is ready to address growing demand and is positioned to provide reliable supply while managing volatility in the market [22][46] Other Important Information - The Lake Charles Methanol Supply Agreement is a key example of the company's differentiated path to connect its molecules to high-growth markets at a premium price [9][66] - The company is actively pursuing additional resource opportunities and is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and risk management [36][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the evolution of gas demand regionally? - Management highlighted that gas demand is growing significantly in key markets, particularly along the Gulf Coast, and they are well-positioned to meet this demand [12][13] Question: What is the outlook for mid-cycle gas prices? - Management remains conservative, focusing on a price range of $3.50 to $4.00, while acknowledging potential for higher prices in the future [20][21] Question: What is the current breakeven cost? - The company confirmed that the breakeven cost is now below $3, showing significant progress since the merger [29] Question: How do you see your gas realization improving over time? - Management expects to add margin through their marketing business and optimize delivery across their transportation portfolio [31][32] Question: What are the key drivers behind the CapEx reduction? - The reduction is primarily due to seasonal demand weakness in the Northeast and prioritization of curtailments in that region [83]