American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Electric Power reported third quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.80 per share, a decrease from $1.85 per share in the same period last year, primarily due to the prior year's sale of the onsite partners' distributed resources business [24][25] - Year-to-date operating earnings totaled $4.78 per share, up from $4.38 per share in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 9% year over year [25] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 full-year operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share, guiding to the upper half of this range [9][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant commercial and industrial load growth of nearly 8% on a rolling 12-month basis as of September 30, 2025, compared to the same period last year [25] - The generation and marketing segment's performance was impacted by the prior year sale of the distributed resources business, but favorable energy margins helped support overall results [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AEP projects a system peak demand of 65 gigawatts by 2030, with a load growth of almost 76% in the next five years, driven by data centers and reshoring of manufacturing [10][11] - The company has secured 28 gigawatts of contracted load additions, up from 24 gigawatts previously reported, backed by energy service agreements or letters of agreement [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AEP announced an increased long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030, with an expected 9% CAGR over the five-year period [7][27] - The company is focused on a $72 billion capital plan, with over two-thirds directed towards transmission and generation to support load growth [30][34] - AEP is actively engaging with regulators and policymakers to achieve constructive outcomes that benefit both customers and shareholders [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and team, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution and strong cash flow from operations [36][37] - The company is committed to maintaining affordability for customers, forecasting average system residential customer rates to increase by approximately 3.5% annually through 2030, below the historical average inflation rate [21][35] Other Important Information - AEP has secured commission approvals for data center tariffs in Ohio and large load tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia [11][16] - The company is exploring generation solutions, including participation in the early site permit process for small modular reactors in Indiana and Virginia [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of earnings step up in 2028 - Management indicated that the capital plan peaking in 2027 and 2028, along with positive legislative outcomes, will drive earnings growth during that period [39][40] Question: Composition of equity needs - Management discussed the anticipated equity needs and potential for minority stake sell downs, indicating a proactive approach to funding growth [42][44] Question: Earnings growth in 2028 to 2030 - Management clarified that the guidance for 2028 to 2030 reflects year-over-year growth, with expectations to be at or above the high end of the range [49][64] Question: Strategy for data center load growth - Management expressed confidence in meeting transmission capacity needs for data centers, highlighting the competitive advantage of their 765 kV transmission network [71][73] Question: Balance between renewables and gas generation - Management emphasized a balanced approach to generation planning, aligning with state energy policies and customer preferences [75][76]