铝板块大涨，估值修复空间怎么看？

Summary of the Conference Call on the Aluminum Sector Industry Overview - The aluminum sector has experienced a significant price increase, with electrolytic aluminum prices rising to 21,600 RMB/ton due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, including production halts and the planned closure of Australia's largest aluminum producer by 2028 [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - Valuation Recovery: The market capitalization ratio of leading aluminum companies to copper companies is currently at 0.44, below the average of 0.55, indicating strong potential for valuation recovery in the electrolytic aluminum sector [1][4]. - Demand Surge: The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak demand season, with strong performance in the automotive, power battery, and photovoltaic sectors. Production of power and energy storage batteries increased over 20% month-on-month and over 40% year-on-year [1][5]. - Profit Impact of Price Changes: A 1,000 RMB increase in aluminum prices can lead to a 15% to 20% increase in company profits. Current valuations are based on an aluminum price of 20,500 RMB/ton, with estimates dropping to 9-10 times earnings as prices rise to 21,600 RMB/ton [1][6]. - Dividend Yield: Most electrolytic aluminum companies have a dividend yield of around 4.5%, with some companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Tianshan offering even higher yields. This high dividend yield is expected to attract investors and support valuation recovery [1][7][10]. - Future Valuation Outlook: By 2026, the valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to improve significantly, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected to rise from 8-12 times to 12-15 times, representing a potential 50% increase [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - Stable Demand and Profitability: The electrolytic aluminum sector has shown stable demand and profitability, with a steady upward trend in earnings since 2020, barring a single quarter loss in 2024 due to rising alumina prices [2][9]. - Investment Opportunities: Companies with higher elasticity, such as Shenhuo, Yun Aluminum, and Zhongfu, are seen as more valuable in the current market. Companies with stable dividend attributes like Tianshan and Hongqiao are also expected to benefit from stable performance [12]. - Positive Outlook: The overall sentiment towards the electrolytic aluminum sector remains positive, with expectations of earnings recovery supported by high dividend yields and cautious optimism regarding price movements [13].