2025-10-30 01:56Summary of Conference Call on Shenzhou International Industry Overview - The textile industry in China is facing increased competition, with leading companies gaining market share due to globalization, quick response capabilities, and vertical integration advantages. [2][4] - The restructuring of the global textile supply chain has seen ASEAN replace China as the largest source of imports for the U.S., particularly in footwear manufacturing, while South Asia has taken over apparel manufacturing. [2][4] - China's reliance on textile imports from ASEAN is increasing, despite maintaining a competitive edge in upstream fiber and fabric production. [2][4] Key Points on Trade War Impact - The trade war has had a two-phase impact on the textile manufacturing sector, with the first phase (2018-2020) leading to a significant drop in U.S. imports from China by approximately 30%, reducing dependency from 40% to 27%. [3][5] - The second phase of the trade war (Trump 2.0) has seen a more aggressive approach with tariffs exceeding 40%, affecting the supply chain dynamics and leading brands to adjust their order patterns. [5][6] - Shenzhou International has been less affected by the trade war, with only 16% of its orders coming from the U.S., allowing it to maintain a strong performance outlook. [3][13] Financial Performance and Market Outlook - The current inventory turnover ratio in the U.S. is at a historical low, indicating a cautious demand outlook, but a clear replenishment trend is expected in 2026, albeit at a subdued pace. [7][10] - Leading manufacturers are expected to benefit from the trade war, with a focus on low-volatility dividend stocks, such as Yuyuan Group and Shenzhou International, which have attractive valuations and dividend yields. [7][10] - Shenzhou International is recommended for long-term value investment due to its high visibility in earnings, reasonable valuation (PE around 13 times), and a dividend yield of less than 6%. [7][13] Brand Strategies and Market Dynamics - Brands are responding to rising tariff costs by either increasing prices or sharing costs with manufacturers, with many expected to complete price adjustments by late 2025 or early 2026. [8][9] - Different brands are experiencing varied performance: Nike is in a destocking phase, Adidas is seeing strong wholesale orders, and Uniqlo is expanding in Western markets. [11][12] Competitive Landscape - Leading manufacturers are maintaining their competitive edge through high-quality production capabilities and quick response times, while smaller firms are struggling. [12] - The focus on overseas production in Southeast Asia is increasing, with a shift in orders from China to these regions, enhancing the performance outlook for leading manufacturers. [12] Conclusion - Shenzhou International is positioned well for future growth, with a strong competitive advantage in vertical integration and a favorable market outlook despite the challenges posed by the trade war. [13][14]