福邦投顧：2026年PCB產業展望-有料才有算力_

Summary of the 2026 PCB Industry Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics and the impact of AI on the sector [3][19]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Chain Dynamics - Material Shortages: The year 2026 is anticipated to be a year of material shortages, emphasizing that "having materials equates to having computing power" [3]. - Upstream Supply: The upstream PCB sector is experiencing tight supply and demand, leading to capacity constraints and price increases [3]. - Downstream Demand: Customers are actively placing orders to secure materials, with demand continuously being revised upwards [4]. Market Growth and Projections - CSP Capital Expenditure: The capital expenditure for cloud service providers (CSPs) is projected to grow by 43% in 2026, with significant growth rates expected in 2025 [8]. - Server Shipment Growth: Global server shipments are expected to see mid-single-digit growth in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 7-8% anticipated [12]. Key Players and Recommendations - Recommended Stocks: The report suggests focusing on specific companies such as 8358 Jinjoo, 8021 Jiandian, and others due to their strong positioning in the market [5]. - Copper Foil Demand: The demand for HVLP4 copper foil is expected to exceed 3,000 tons per month, with slow supply growth and inevitable processing fee increases [5][36]. AI's Impact on the PCB Supply Chain - AI as a Core Policy: AI has become a central policy focus in the U.S., driving investments in AI computing power and reshaping the PCB supply chain [7][19]. - Shift in Supplier Dynamics: Traditional leading PCB manufacturers are currently lagging in adapting to AI demands, while second-tier manufacturers are successfully entering the AI supply chain [19]. Material Specifications and Trends - High-Density Interconnect (HDI): The demand for high-density interconnects is increasing, with specifications evolving to meet the needs of AI applications [19]. - Material Upgrades: The transition to higher-grade materials such as M8.5 and M9 is necessary to meet the stringent dielectric requirements for high-frequency applications [23][31]. Production Capacity and Challenges - Drill Supply Shortages: The supply of PCB drills is expected to remain tight as manufacturers expand capacity at a slower rate than PCB producers [32]. - Copper Foil Supply Gap: The supply gap for HVLP4 copper foil is projected to widen towards 2027, with significant price increases anticipated due to demand pressures [39][44]. Regional Expansion - Overseas Production: Major PCB manufacturers are actively expanding their production capacities in Southeast Asia, with significant investments planned in Thailand and Malaysia [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - Emerging Technologies: The report discusses the importance of next-generation materials and technologies, such as quartz fabric, which are becoming essential for high-performance applications [23][28]. - Market Adjustments: The PCB industry is expected to see price adjustments due to ongoing supply constraints and rising demand for advanced materials [47]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the PCB industry's current state and future outlook.