美国_10 月 FOMC 会议回顾_尽管措辞更偏鹰派，但 12 月仍有可能降息-US Daily_ October FOMC Recap_ Despite a More Hawkish Message, a December Cut Still Looks Likely (Mericle)

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Adjustment: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. Balance Sheet Management: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. Inflation Insights: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. Labor Market Trends: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. Hawkish Tone: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. Diverse Opinions within FOMC: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. Data Collection Challenges: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. Future Policy Stance: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - Market Reactions: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - Labor Market Weakness: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - Risk Management Cuts: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.