Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per tonne, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [5][13] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdowns, but adjusted EBITDA margin should remain consistent with the previous quarter [13][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [16][17] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs per tonne in one of the Mexican operations [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, steel demand has been impacted by uncertainty from U.S. trade policies, with a projected 10% decrease in apparent consumption for 2025 [8][48] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with an expected 5% growth in apparent steel demand in 2025, despite facing challenges from unfairly traded imports [9][10] - Argentina's steel activity leveled off due to pre-election uncertainty, but there is optimism for growth following the elections [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to trade volatility and competition from Asian countries [11][12] - The company supports policies aimed at increasing local value addition and reducing reliance on imports, particularly in Mexico [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of the USMCA framework and ongoing trade negotiations to ensure fair competition and long-term growth in the region [6][7] - The Mexican government is prioritizing efforts to fortify local value chains and promote self-sufficiency against external pressures [8][9] - Management expressed optimism about potential structural reforms in Argentina that could enhance competitiveness in the steel industry [10][11] Other Important Information - Ternium received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina, which significantly reduces its environmental footprint [11] - The board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as the previous year [5][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic opportunities post-Argentina elections - Management indicated that the elections would not change existing projects and expressed optimism for structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in Argentina [22][23] Question: Conditions for restructuring ownership - Management noted that restructuring depends on external factors, particularly the share held by ANSES, and emphasized the need for government reforms before considering such initiatives [24][25] Question: Plans if U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions - Management confirmed that they would continue with existing investment plans, anticipating increased production capacity in response to market conditions [27][29] Question: Cash cost outlook for Q4 - Management expects ongoing efficiencies to improve cash costs across operations in Mexico, Argentina, and Usiminas, despite slight price decreases [37][41] Question: Demand outlook for Mexico in 2026 - Management projected a recovery in demand for 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in U.S.-Mexico trade relations [48][50] Question: Update on Compactos project - Management stated that decisions regarding the Compactos project would be made in mid-2026, with ongoing analysis of various alternatives [78][80] Question: Expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026 - Management indicated that while they aim for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, achieving this will depend on various market conditions and trade negotiations [76][82]