NiSource(NI) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, reflecting a growth trajectory [8][29] - The adjusted EPS growth rate for the base business is projected at 6% to 8% annually through 2030, with a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 8% to 9% through 2033 [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured approval for the GenCo model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, enhancing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The GenCo investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][26] - The company is advancing its AI and digital strategy, achieving sustained field productivity uplifts of over 20% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively pursuing large load customers, with a recent contract with a significant investment-grade data center customer [13][20] - The partnership with Columbia Gas of Virginia to deliver natural gas to Eli Lilly's new $5 billion facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs [11][12] - The company is focused on economic development initiatives that expand the customer base and promote efficient distribution of fixed costs [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver safe, reliable energy while capitalizing on emerging data center opportunities, with a focus on customer affordability [5][14] - The GenCo strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new customers with speed and flexibility, reinforcing the company's competitive position [12][36] - The company is committed to minimizing the financial impact of safety and reliability investments on customers, with a focus on operational excellence [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the pipeline of opportunities, with negotiations for an additional 1 to 3 gigawatts of projects ongoing [37] - The company is focused on maintaining affordability and reliability, with a positive relationship with the Indiana governor's office regarding economic development opportunities [67] - Management highlighted the importance of thoughtful risk management provisions in contracts to protect financial integrity [24][74] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan, increasing the base capital plan to $21 billion, with an additional $7 billion for data center investments [26][27] - The company is committed to a 14% to 16% FFO to debt ratio in all years of its plan, with a downgrade threshold of 13% [44][31] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity to support current initiatives and future growth opportunities [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a very large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path towards executing additional contracts based on this model [41][42] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25 to $0.45 range reflects contributions from multiple customers, with the potential for additional customers to push towards the higher end of that range [50][51] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for GenCo? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity, debt, and non-controlling interest associated with minority interest investors [52] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within GenCo? - The targeted return for GenCo is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support customer needs [79][80] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]