全球利率、大宗商品、货币与新兴市场Global Macro Outlook and Strategy presentation_ Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global Macro Outlook: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][8][11][13]. Key Insights and Arguments US Rates - Interest Rate Forecast: An earlier end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) is expected to lead to modestly lower yields and a flatter yield curve. The forecast maintains a bearish bias on duration due to rich valuations, with a recommendation to hold 5s/20s steepeners [3][19][22]. - Future Cuts: The Federal Reserve is projected to implement three further cuts by 1Q26, with the effective funds rate expected to drop to 3.25-3.5% [11][13][28]. International Rates - Mixed Movements: Developed market (DM) rates have shown mixed movements, with a neutral stance on Euro duration and a tactical position on UK rates [4][46][44]. - UK Strategy: A tactical pay on 1Yx1Y SONIA is recommended, with a bearish bias on 10Y gilts due to potential market disappointment regarding fiscal policy [56][57]. Commodities - Oil Market Dynamics: Sanctions on Russian oil are expected to stabilize export flows but narrow profit margins due to increased logistical complexities. Russian crude exports may stabilize despite a decline in Indian imports [8][90]. - Gold Forecasts: Investor demand for gold is projected to average around 566 tonnes per quarter in 2026, with prices expected to reach an average of $5,055/oz by 4Q26 [8][100]. Currencies - Bearish USD Outlook: A bearish view on the USD is supported by softening US data and concerns over Fed independence. The outlook for USD/JPY is under review, with potential implications from the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting [68][74][78]. - Emerging Market Currencies: The recommendation is to stay overweight on EM FX, with a cautious approach to EM rates [8][28]. Emerging Markets - Growth and Inflation: The outlook for emerging markets has improved, with less downside expected in growth and inflation. The recommendation is to maintain an overweight position in EM rates and FX while moving EM sovereigns back to a market weight [8][28]. Additional Important Insights - Funding Gaps: A large funding gap is anticipated to emerge in FY26, with coupon auction sizes expected to increase starting in November 2026 [29][32]. - Foreign Demand: Demand from foreign investors remains weak, with expectations of a shift towards more price-sensitive investors, which may keep long-term yields anchored at higher levels [39][41]. - Copper and Aluminum Prices: Bullish forecasts for copper prices are expected to reach $12,000/mt in 1Q26 due to supply disruptions, while aluminum prices are projected to push towards $3,000/mt [99]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, interest rate forecasts, commodity dynamics, currency strategies, and emerging market outlooks.