中国工业_跟踪美国对华关税变化下的贸易流向（第 43 周）_ China Industrials _Tracking trade flows amid changing...__ Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China (week 43)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Industrials and Shipping - Focus: Trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, including shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][3][4] Core Insights 1. Container Throughput Decline: - Container throughput at key ports in China decreased by 8% week-over-week (WoW) and increased by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [3][6] - Port of Los Angeles reported an 11% decrease in import volume WoW, with flat YoY growth for week 45, following a 13% YoY increase in week 44 [3][9] 2. Freight Rate Trends: - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 7% WoW, marking the highest level since early September [4][13] - Specific rates for Shanghai to US West Coast and East Coast increased by 11% and 6% respectively [4][13] 3. Chartering Market Dynamics: - Containership charter rates remain firm, with demand outpacing available tonnage, particularly in the 2,500-4,200 TEU range [4][29] - The Asia feeder ship availability index decreased by 1% WoW, indicating tighter supply [4][33] 4. Port Congestion and Fees: - Port congestion persists, with an average vessel waiting time of approximately 3.4 days at the Port of Antwerp [5][31] - 4% of container ship port calls in the US since mid-October may have incurred additional fees, down from 7% in Q1 [5] 5. International Freight Flights: - The number of international freight flights increased by 11% YoY last week, indicating a recovery in air freight capacity [3][35] 6. Railway Express Volumes: - Outbound volume for the China-Europe and China-Asia Railway Express recorded a decline of 7% and an increase of 31% YoY respectively in September [3][27] Additional Important Insights - Trade Flow Monitoring: The report utilizes high-frequency data from various sources, including UBS Evidence Lab and the Ministry of Transport, to track trade flows and shipping dynamics [2][4] - Macroeconomic Risks: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a risk for China's industrial sector, with potential impacts on demand for industrial goods and import/export volumes [43] - Future Outlook: The report suggests that if preferential policies for high-tech companies are canceled, it could negatively affect earnings, alongside intense competition impacting market share [43] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China industrial and shipping sectors.