2025-10-31 00:59Summary of Dongfang Electric Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Dongfang Electric (1072 HK/600875 CH) - Industry: Electrical Equipment Key Points and Arguments 1. Upgrade to Buy/Buy - Dongfang Electric's H/A shares have been upgraded to Buy/Buy from Reduce/Reduce due to improved risk/reward dynamics after a recent price cooldown. The current trading PE is 12x for 2026 estimates, which is +1 standard deviation above the past three-year mean, down from +3 standard deviations previously. This indicates a more attractive valuation compared to global peers like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy, which trade at 31-47x 2026e PE [1][8][33]. 2. Sustained Upcycle in Coal Power Equipment - The expectation for new orders and revenue from coal power equipment has shifted. The delivery cycle is extended due to tight supply, leading to an increase in installation and equipment delivery from 55GW in 2025 to 80GW in 2027. This change has prompted an increase in EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, indicating continued growth in this segment [2][4]. 3. Earnings Projections for 3Q25 - Dongfang Electric is projected to achieve a 20% year-over-year growth in earnings, reaching RMB1.12 billion in 3Q25, which aligns with the high end of market expectations. A Corporate Day on November 6 could serve as a catalyst for further positive guidance [3][26]. 4. Financial Estimates and Target Prices - Estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 5-27% to account for the longer delivery cycle of coal power equipment. The target prices for Dongfang H/A have been increased to HKD21.50 and RMB23.50 from HKD12.20 and RMB17.70, respectively. This reflects a 22% CAGR in EPS from 2024 to 2027, supported by strong orders in coal, nuclear, and hydro segments [4][35]. 5. Risks and Concerns - Key downside risks include potential delays in equipment delivery, rising raw material costs, and weaker-than-expected margins in the wind turbine segment. These factors could impact the overall growth trajectory of the company [4][36]. Additional Important Information - The share prices of Dongfang Electric have corrected significantly after an initial surge due to the Yarlung Zangbo project announcement, falling 36%/21% from late July to late September. The current valuation is now seen as attractive again, with a projected earnings CAGR of 22% [19][22]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow from operations, with net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 revised upwards significantly [28][29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Dongfang Electric's current market position, financial outlook, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive overview for investors.