全球股票策略 - 我们正处于多大的泡沫中？市场见顶的预警信号有哪些-Global Equity Strategy-How much of a bubble are we in What are the warning signals of a peak

1. Very clear overvaluation. There are 5 different approaches to this: i) The P/E rises to c45X to 73X for at least 30% of market cap on a 10 year bond yield of, at least, 5.5% in previous bubbles. Currently, the Mag 6 trade on 35X 12 month trailing; ii) The ERP falls to c1% (2000, 1929); iii) Investors move away from conventional valuations to unconventional (land value in Japan in 1989 or eyeballs in TMT) or just focus relative value; iv) TAMs (Total Addressable Market) required to justify valuations beco ...