好未来 - 2026 财年第二季度业绩强劲，为 2026 财年发展奠定良好基础

Summary of TAL Education Group Conference Call Company Overview - Company: TAL Education Group (TAL.N) - Industry: Education - Region: Asia Pacific, specifically China Key Financial Results - F2Q26 Performance: - Revenue increased by 39% year-over-year to US$861 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached US$108 million, which is 16% above Visible Alpha consensus, resulting in an operating margin of 12.5%, up 2.1 percentage points from 10.4% in F2Q25 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was US$136 million, 39% above Bloomberg consensus, with a net margin of 15.8%, up 3.8 percentage points from 12.0% in F2Q25 [2] Shareholder Returns - TAL repurchased US$134.7 million in shares from July 31 to October 29, with US$465.3 million remaining under its US$600 million buyback program effective through July 2026 [2] - Current market capitalization implies an approximate 8% shareholder return yield [2] Future Outlook - F2026 Projections: - Revenue is projected to grow by 38% year-over-year [3] - Non-GAAP operating profit expected to be US$164 million with an operating margin of 5.3% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasted at US$248 million, with a net margin of 8.0% [3] Price Target and Valuation - Price target raised from US$13.00 to US$14.60, reflecting a 36x F2026e and 25x F2027e non-GAAP P/E ratio, justified by an earnings CAGR of 37% from F2026 to F2029 and 30% from F2027 to F2030 [4][14] - DCF-based valuation methodology applied, with a 14% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate [13][20] Investment Thesis - TAL is expanding into new business areas, including non-academic tutoring, content solutions, overseas markets, and learning technology solutions [26] - The company has sufficient net cash to support future development and has improved shareholder returns through buybacks [26] - Strong demand for educational businesses and a better competitive environment compared to other internet industry segments [26] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include regulatory changes affecting high school and non-academic tutoring, competition in smart learning devices, and heavier-than-expected investments in new businesses that could erode margins [36] Conclusion - TAL Education Group shows strong financial performance and growth potential, with a positive outlook for future revenue and profitability, supported by strategic expansions and shareholder return initiatives. The raised price target reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position.