2025-10-31 01:53Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Liquor Industry (3Q25 Results) Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese liquor industry, particularly major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Fen Wine, Gujing, and Yanghe [1][7]. Key Financial Results - Kweichow Moutai: Total sales remained flat year-over-year (0% change), with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 74.1% [3][7]. - Wuliangye: Reported a significant sales decrease of 53% year-over-year, with a GPM of 72.5% [3][7]. - Luzhou Lao Jiao: Sales decreased by 8%, with a GPM of 58.1% [3][7]. - Fen Wine: Sales increased by 4%, with a GPM of 62.0% [3][7]. - Gujing: Experienced a 52% decrease in sales, with a GPM of 33.7% [3][7]. - Yanghe: Sales decreased by 29%, with a GPM of 43.5% [3][7]. Profitability Metrics - Operating Profit: - Kweichow Moutai: Rmb 25.888 billion, up 2% year-over-year. - Wuliangye: Operating profit down 74% [3][7]. - Net Profit: - Kweichow Moutai: Rmb 19.224 billion, flat year-over-year. - Wuliangye: Net profit down 66% [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The industry has faced deteriorating demand since 2024, which is now reflected in the financials of major players [7]. - Companies are prioritizing supply and inventory management due to ongoing demand pressure, leading to a focus on destocking [7]. - A narrower gap between reported numbers and retail demand is expected in the coming quarters, although a turnaround may take time [7]. Dividend Announcements - Wuliangye announced a mid-year dividend plan of Rmb 10 billion, translating to Rmb 2.578 per share, indicating a yield of 2.2% as of October 30, 2025 [7]. Pricing Trends - Industry wholesale prices have trended lower across brands, with a slower payment pace from distributors year-over-year [7]. Analyst Reactions - Analysts noted that most major liquor companies recorded significant sales and earnings decreases for 3Q25, with expectations of declines between 30-50% [7]. - Revisions to earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were made for several companies, indicating a cautious outlook for the next 12 months [9]. Conclusion - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing significant challenges, with major companies reporting steep declines in sales and profits. The focus on destocking and inventory management reflects the ongoing demand pressures, and while some companies are maintaining dividends, the overall sentiment remains cautious as the market adjusts to these dynamics [7][9].