Canadian National Railway pany(CNI) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 6% growth in EPS, reaching $1.83 compared to $1.72 in the previous year [27] - Revenues increased by 1% year-over-year, driven by a 1% rise in RTMs and a 5% increase in carloads [21][27] - The operating ratio improved by 170 basis points to 61.4%, compared to 63.1% in the previous year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volume growth was approximately 1% in RTMs and 5% in carloads, although overall volumes were softer than expected, particularly in merchandise segments due to macroeconomic and tariff pressures [11][21] - Intermodal volumes increased, with domestic units up 18% and international units up 14% [24] - Petroleum and chemical volumes rose across major segments, with plastics and chemical RTMs up 8% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian grain harvest is expected to be a record crop, despite a slower start [22] - Forest products, particularly lumber, saw a year-over-year decline due to weak demand and increased duties [23] - The company experienced market share gains in chemicals and plastics, with recent successes in domestic intermodal [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a capital spend of $2.8 billion for 2026, down nearly $600 million from the current year's level, to address capacity bottlenecks and optimize fleet size [5][20] - There is an emphasis on enhancing shareholder value through increased free cash flow and accelerated share buybacks [7][8] - The company is committed to operational efficiency and productivity improvements, targeting a reduction of $75 million in management labor costs [6][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by a weak macroeconomic environment and unexpected shocks from tariffs and labor [4][9] - The outlook for 2026 indicates limited volume growth, with expectations of a weak North American industrial production and housing starts [9][32] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and find growth opportunities despite external challenges [10][66] Other Important Information - The company has seen a 14% increase in free cash flow year-to-date, with expectations for continued acceleration into 2026 [11][31] - The company is actively participating in merger reviews to protect its franchise and competition in the industry [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about CapEx cuts and capacity - Management reassured that the capital cuts will not jeopardize capacity, as significant growth opportunities have already been addressed [36][39] Question: Opportunities in commercial strategy for 2026 - Management highlighted a diversified book of business and ongoing efforts to drive market share gains, particularly in energy and agriculture [43][45] Question: Risks associated with M&A activity - Management emphasized that further consolidation may not be beneficial for the industry and expressed readiness to protect their network if necessary [48][51] Question: Challenges in forecasting - Management acknowledged the difficulties in forecasting due to macroeconomic volatility and emphasized the need for agility in responding to changes [56][58]