中国经济-10 月 PMI 有所回落，但出现部分积极信号-China Economics-Oct PMI Payback, But Some Greenshoots

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Manufacturing and Services Sector - Date: October 31, 2025 Core Insights - Manufacturing PMI Performance: The manufacturing PMI experienced a notable decline in October, primarily attributed to the timing shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which caused front-loaded production in September. The combined manufacturing PMI for September and October stands at 49.4, consistent with August's reading [2][4][7] - Non-Manufacturing PMIs: Both construction and service PMIs underperformed, indicating ongoing challenges in housing and consumer activities. However, there was a positive development in infrastructure, with the civil engineering PMI increasing by 5 percentage points month-over-month [3][7] - Fiscal Stimulus Impact: A fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus of RMB 1 trillion is expected to alleviate local government funding pressures and support investment, contributing to a projected GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year in Q4 2025 [4][7] Additional Important Details - Price Indices: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to have decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, while year-over-year it may rise to -2.2% due to a favorable base effect [7] - Trade Relations: The US-China trade truce, which includes a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs and the suspension of US technology barriers, is expected to reduce near-term trade uncertainties and positively influence capital expenditures [4][7] - PMI Breakdown: The manufacturing PMI breakdown shows a decline in new orders and production, with new orders at 48.8 and production at 49.7 in October [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the manufacturing and services sector in China, the impact of fiscal policies, and the implications of trade relations on economic growth.