中国每周动态-MXCN 下跌 1%；中美韩国会晤后美国下调对华关税；上调 2025-27 年 GDP 增长预期

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic indicators, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sector and capital markets in China. Core Insights and Arguments - Trade Relations: Following the meeting between President Xi and President Trump on October 30, the US announced a 10% reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs on China and a partial loosening of export controls. In return, China agreed to postpone its rare earth controls for one year and resume soybean purchases [1][1][1]. - GDP Growth Forecasts: Economists have revised the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China to 5.0% (up from 4.9%), with 2026/27 forecasts also increased to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, driven by stronger export growth and government spending [1][1][1]. - Market Performance: The MXCN and CSI300 indices experienced losses of 1.5% and 0.4% respectively. However, there were US$3.5 billion inflows into the Southbound Connect this week, indicating continued interest in Chinese equities [1][1][1]. - Industrial Profit and Revenue: In September, industrial profit increased by 23.0% year-over-year, while revenue rose by 3.3% year-over-year [1][1][1]. - PMI Indicators: The NBS manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 50.1 in October [1][1][1]. Additional Important Insights - Capital Market Focus: The CSRC Chair highlighted six key areas for capital markets under the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the government's commitment to enhancing market conditions [1][1][1]. - Loan Demand and Business Conditions: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) Q3 surveys suggest marginally better loan demand and improved business conditions, indicating a potential recovery in the financial sector [4][4][4]. - Sector Performance: The Materials sector outperformed with a 3.1% increase, while the Real Estate sector lagged with a -1.5% decline [3][3][3]. - Earnings Growth Projections: The consensus for 2025/26 EPS growth is projected at 1%/16% for MXCN and 15%/13% for CSI300, with the Materials sector seeing the most significant upward revision [10][10][10]. Conclusion The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of trade relations, GDP growth forecasts, and sector performance. The insights suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Chinese market, driven by government policies and improving economic indicators.