全球与中国人工智能、新旧存储及 SPE 对比分析-Global vs. China AI, Old vs. New Memory and SPE

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: South Korea Technology, specifically in the semiconductor and memory sectors [71][72] - Market Sentiment: The overall view of the South Korean technology industry is considered attractive [2] Company Insights - SCREEN Holdings: - Downgraded from Overweight (OW) to Equal-weight (EW) due to recent share price gains and low memory sales weighting [20] - Sales weighting in memory was only 14% in F3/25, limiting benefits from the memory supercycle [20] - High exposure to China with 40% of sales, increasing risk due to tightening trade regulations [20] - Operating rates around 80%, indicating good efficiency compared to peers [20] - Memory Market Dynamics: - Flash memory market is recovering due to a shift to nearline storage SSDs caused by HDD shortages [13] - Demand for semiconductor production equipment (SPE) is currently uncertain, with some manufacturers curbing investments [13] - Focus on back-end SPE makers who are less affected by trade regulations and benefit from smartphone market growth [13] Financial Metrics and Projections - Valuation Methodology: - Target P/E for SCREEN Holdings set at 11.9x, reflecting restored market trust since the new CEO took over in March 2019 [21] - EPS forecast for F3/28 is ¥1,332.2, anticipating the next earnings peak [21] Risks and Opportunities - Upside Risks: - Stronger-than-expected recovery in smartphone demand and semiconductor demand could lead to increased equipment investments [22] - Potential for SCREEN to expand market share in advanced cleaning equipment [22] - Downside Risks: - Stagnant demand for consumer electronics due to high inflation and food prices could negatively impact semiconductor demand [23] - Ongoing US-China trade tensions may restrict equipment exports [23] Market Data - Market Share: - Lam Research holds 42% of the total market for etching systems, followed by Tokyo Electron at 24% and AMAT at 17% [15] - KLA leads the mask inspection equipment market with a 38% share, while Lasertec holds 50% [18] Analyst Ratings - Stock Ratings: - Various companies in the South Korean technology sector have been rated, with notable mentions including SK hynix (Overweight) and Samsung Electronics (Overweight) [72] Conclusion - The South Korean technology sector, particularly in semiconductors and memory, presents both opportunities and risks. The focus on back-end SPE makers and the recovery of the flash memory market are positive indicators, while trade tensions and consumer demand stagnation pose significant risks.