ThunderSoft(SZ:300496)2025-11-03 02:36Summary of Thunder Software Technology Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Thunder Software Technology Co Ltd (300496.SZ) - Industry: Greater China IT Services and Software - Current Stock Rating: Underweight [5][62] - Price Target: Rmb42.00, representing a downside of 41% from the current price of Rmb70.93 [5][62] Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Revenue: Rmb1,848 million, a 43% year-over-year increase [7] - 9M25 Revenue Growth: 39% year-over-year, exceeding full-year forecasts, driven by IoT [7] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 29%, down 6.7 percentage points year-over-year due to a higher proportion of IoT revenue [7] - Normalized Net Profit: Grew 65% year-over-year, attributed to slower operating expense growth (+11% YoY) compared to revenue growth [7] - Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Decreased by 24% year-over-year to Rmb134 million [7] Quarterly Results Summary - Total Consolidated Revenue: - 3Q24: Rmb1,294 million - 3Q25: Rmb1,848 million (42.9% YoY growth) [8] - Operating Profit: - 3Q24: Rmb6 million - 3Q25: Rmb33 million (435% YoY growth) [8] - Net Profit: - 3Q24: Rmb48 million - 3Q25: Rmb71 million (48.3% YoY growth) [8] Valuation and Risks - Valuation Methodology: Price target derived from a 10-year discounted cash flow model with an 8.6% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate [9] - Upside Risks: - Re-rating of high-growth tech stocks due to secular growth - Increased demand in smart vehicle and IoT sectors - Improved management execution on cost control [11] - Downside Risks: - Cancellation of partnerships with global chipmakers - Slowdown in technology iteration in smartphones and IoT - Geopolitical tensions [11] Market Position - Market Capitalization: Rmb32,629 million [5] - Average Daily Trading Value: Rmb1,218 million [5] - 52-Week Price Range: Rmb82.29 - Rmb45.41 [5] Conclusion Thunder Software Technology Co Ltd has shown strong revenue growth driven by IoT, but faces challenges with declining gross margins and cash flow. The company is rated underweight with significant downside potential based on current valuations and market conditions.