克而瑞 银十收官，楼市表现如何？

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market in October 2025 faced significant pressure, with the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies declining by 16% year-on-year [1][2] - The new housing supply in 30 key cities decreased by 21% year-on-year and 51% month-on-month, indicating weakened willingness from developers to launch new projects [1][5] - The overall market sentiment remains low due to insufficient policy support, with expectations of further declines in November and December [1][6] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In October 2025, the sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was 253 billion yuan, marking a 41.9% year-on-year decline, the largest monthly drop of the year [2][3] - Among the top 100 companies, 48 reported month-on-month growth, with 20 companies showing increases greater than 30% [3] - The top three companies experienced a 43.4% decline year-on-year, while the cumulative sales for the first ten months of 2025 were 2.58 trillion yuan, down 16% [3][4] New Housing Supply and Demand - The average new housing absorption rate in 30 key cities was only 37%, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai around 30% [9] - New homes in second-tier cities are being priced 10%-20% lower than surrounding second-hand homes, attracting some first-time and upgrade buyers [14] - The demand for mid-range housing (200-300 million yuan) remains concentrated in the second-hand market, as new homes do not meet this price point [15] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in new supply, overall inventory remains high, with two-thirds of key cities having a digestion cycle exceeding 18 months [12] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing accelerated declines, with a 11% month-on-month drop, contrasting with a slight increase in new homes [11] Land Market Trends - The land transaction volume in October saw a year-on-year decline of 33%, with the average premium rate dropping to a new low [16][17] - Land acquisition is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with over 70% of land purchases by the top ten companies [18] Future Market Expectations - The real estate market is expected to continue its low-level fluctuations into 2026, with further declines anticipated [19] - The sales pressure on mid-range housing products is expected to increase, as buyers have flexible timelines for their purchases [19] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The push for current housing sales policies is still in the proposal stage, with no immediate implementation expected [21] - The recent launch of 59 urban village renovation projects in Shanghai, with an investment of approximately 370 billion yuan, may provide short-term demand stimulation but could lead to future supply-demand imbalances [22] Additional Important Insights - The high-end buyer segment, particularly those purchasing luxury homes over 40 million yuan, remains less affected by market fluctuations due to their financial stability [13] - The overall environment for both new and second-hand homes is not expected to improve significantly, with ongoing competition between new and old housing affecting market dynamics [20]