Hoymiles(SH:688032)2025-11-03 02:36Summary of the Conference Call for HeMai Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Company Name: HeMai Co., Ltd. (禾迈股份) - Industry: Power production and supply - Headquarters: Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China - Founded: 2012 - IPO: Listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2021 - Core Products: Microinverters and electrical equipment - Market Position: Among the top three manufacturers in the global microinverter industry with an 8% market share in 2021 [10][11] Key Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Performance: - Net loss of 59 million RMB for the first nine months of 2025, compared to a net profit of 160 million RMB in H1 2024 and 246 million RMB in the first nine months of 2024 - Q3 2025 net profit turned negative with a loss of 75 million RMB, underperforming market expectations [1][2] - Revenue Breakdown: - Microinverters: Revenue decreased by 40% YoY to 600 million RMB, with sales volume down 30% to 540,000 units; gross margin maintained at 47-48% due to cost control and product upgrades [2] - Commercial and large-scale energy storage: Contributed 200-300 million RMB in revenue, but over 100 million RMB in projects delayed to Q4 2025 due to battery supply constraints; gross margin below 10% [2] - Household energy storage: Revenue of 100 million RMB; distributed photovoltaic projects generated 300 million RMB [2] Future Outlook - FY25 Guidance: - Microinverter revenue expected to reach 800 million RMB, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue - Commercial and large-scale energy storage projected to contribute 500 million RMB, with household storage at 150 million RMB [3] - FY26 Guidance: - Anticipated doubling of commercial and large-scale energy storage revenue to over 1 billion RMB, driven by a 400 million RMB contract order expected to be delivered in Q1 2026 - Household storage revenue could see 3-5 times growth [3] - Management Goals: - Increase overseas revenue share of commercial and large-scale energy storage from under 20% in 2025 to 30% by 2026, focusing on Europe and Latin America - Household storage primarily targeting Europe and Asia-Pacific markets [3] Market Reaction - Investor Sentiment: Anticipated negative reaction from investors due to weak performance [4] Stock Information - Current Stock Price: 108.71 RMB (as of October 29, 2025) - 12-Month Rating: Buy - 12-Month Target Price: 127.00 RMB - Market Capitalization: 13.5 billion RMB (approximately 1.90 billion USD) - 52-Week Price Range: 150.57 - 93.60 RMB [5][21] Important Metrics - Projected Revenue Growth: - Revenue forecast for 2025: 2.917 billion RMB - Expected net profit for 2025: 296 million RMB - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025: 2.39 RMB [7] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025: 45.6x - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for 2025: 2.2x [7] Risks and Challenges - Industry Risks: - Lower-than-expected demand for distributed photovoltaics and energy storage - Delays in supportive policy implementation - Slower-than-expected penetration of microinverters [11] - Company-Specific Risks: - Slower market share expansion - Delays in product upgrades - Slow expansion of distribution networks [11] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ratings: The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential upside of 16.8% [9][17] - Expected Returns: Projected total return of 17.7%, including a dividend yield of 0.9% [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding HeMai Co., Ltd., highlighting its financial performance, future outlook, market sentiment, and associated risks.